Technical Annual Status Report (Stage 2) for the CLRTAP Inventory Review: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AZ Submission year: 2024

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden changes in time series data reported by countries. The analysis was limited to data provided in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format. Only data reported for at least three years were considered. Years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors were available have been converted to NFR14/NFR19. Only the converted sectors are in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) is more than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals in the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. more than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2022
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2022
PMs: 2000 - 2022

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number.

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
NOx	1A3bi						6540	4975	5193	4513	2631	3173	4017	4058	4870	5225	6153	7340	7448	8295	8736	9175	10251	11087	10669	11265	10643	10224	10703	10896	11036	10553	11555	12818
NMVOC	1A3bi						7796	5909	6047	5265	2974	3663	4617	4663	5533	5899	7019	8466	8732	9926	10420	10948	12223	13227	12626	13351	12637	12162	12680	12867	13020	12482	13681	15194
NMVOC	2H2	14695	8748	717	2494	1870	3744	4612	4386	4433	4971	5166	5334	5170	5192	5207	5414	8170	10441	9401	10049	10205	10138	10195	11169	10799	10221	11038	9211	9388	12651	11612	12610	12724

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
BC	1A2f								25	27	17	8	6	6	5	3	4	9	6	14	20	10	4	3
BC	1A3c								29	25	25	8	7	7	15	16	16	10	21	15	20	5	5	27
BC	2A1	1	1	2	3	4	4	4	5	4	4	3	4	5	6	8	7	6	8	9	10	9	9	10
BC	2D3b	3	4	3	3	5	8	8	16	20	37	26	14	13	26	25	22	16	13	15	25	12	18	26

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Pb	1A1a																		83104	79306	63290	85204	124603	134221	86348	74105	230301	282760	156081	26609	27430	21436	79534	23360
Pb	1A2gviii																		79007	74242	60388	82237	86603	88030	82165	67316	60731	13085	15015	12983	12418	8100	7200	684
Pb	2A3											383	173	125	271	683	1318	1744	56782	68895	4703	3207	5048	2470	3650	6342	4458	4816	11839	8125	9226	10507	8305	8305
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	98853	92882	87564	81331	75548	96231	89776	88821	105298	116665	121215	130494	133903	136177	138509	195366	279951	708687	739311	663939	829669	862408	855143	815500	751221	884346	832288	713113	601489	615813	582246	656765	588594
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	98853	92882	87564	81331	75548	96231	89776	88821	105298	116665	121215	130494	133903	136177	138509	195366	279951	708687	739311	663939	829669	862408	855143	815500	751221	884346	832288	713113	601489	615813	582246	656765	588594
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	98853	92882	87564	81331	75548	96231	89776	88821	105298	116665	121215	130494	133903	136177	138509	195366	279951	708687	739311	663939	829669	862408	855143	815500	751221	884346	832288	713113	601489	615813	582246	656765	588594
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	57560	54193	50986	47358	43990	42141	41860	41727	52550	63513	64508	68595	70546	70779	71582	102292	148580	327088	331436	334182	373706	359757	351097	345121	316978	309421	238183	228865	225818	222835	200586	201618	183307
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	57560	54193	50986	47358	43990	42141	41860	41727	52550	63513	64508	68595	70546	70779	71582	102292	148580	327088	331436	334182	373706	359757	351097	345121	316978	309421	238183	228865	225818	222835	200586	201618	183307
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	57560	54193	50986	47358	43990	42141	41860	41727	52550	63513	64508	68595	70546	70779	71582	102292	148580	327088	331436	334182	373706	359757	351097	345121	316978	309421	238183	228865	225818	222835	200586	201618	183307
Hg	1A2c																		3093	5197	3656	4280	4656	5323	5329	5445	5482	8005	3706	875	5045	5883	5440	8313
Hg	1A2f																		4172	4584	4211	3039	4780	5862	5839	6650	6503	8072	7014	6390	6706	8697	9687	10680