Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AZ Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A4bii																		4886	5105	3510	3284	2599	2288	4	3	2	3	3
NOx	3B3	9	7	6	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A1a						12	15	15	14	14	15	45	42	42	49	47	57	21411	9569	2773	168	1815	2149	83	165	8255	12999	6608

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	1A1a	49	144	132	134	154	149	182	995	552	266	152	234	267	190	201	515	687	452
PM2.5	1A3	9	11	11	13	14	17	21	623	878	452	692	741	843	163	1247	843
PM2.5	3B1a	322	336	352	368	382	397	410	422	435	447	457	517	477	483	484	487	490	489
PM10	1A1a	49	144	132	134	154	149	182	1250	665	298	153	255	292	191	203	613	842	530
PM10	3B1a	495	516	541	566	586	611	630	648	668	688	703	795	732	742	743	748	754	751
TSP	1A1a	49	144	132	134	154	149	182	1690	862	355	156	291	336	191	205	782	1109	666
TSP	3B1a	1085	1129	1185	1239	1285	1337	1380	1419	1464	1506	1539	1741	1604	1625	1628	1639	1651	1644
BC	1A1a								25	14	7	4	6	7	5	5	13	17	11
BC	1A2e													6	6	5	4	12	7
BC	1A3c														4	6	6	3	8

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a						65	79	78	73	73	82	242	223	225	260	251	306	197746	88795	25834	1869	16923	20271	1183	2122	76520	121043	62260
Pb	2C1						11040	5060	4600	2300	1380		21160	150420	259440	415840	1316060	1542380	2152800	1279260	691380	1409900	1743860	2043320	1173920	1490860	1389200	1588380	1781580
Pb	2C7a																					29504	101904	80752	6251	12817	18415	36987	39188
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL						80920	68603	67560	65014	48788	52133	65879	195550	306086	463212	1372556	1604130	2349358	1492009	1537152	2357284	2873869	3394184	2399889	2705355	1708402	1913607	2065016
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE						80920	68603	67560	65014	48788	52133	65879	195550	306086	463212	1372556	1604130	2349358	1492009	1537152	2357284	2873869	3394184	2399889	2705355	2959724
Cd	1A1a						11	13	13	12	12	14	40	37	38	43	42	51	52068	23407	6811	507	4459	5360	332	593	20162	31945	16482
Cd	1B2aiv						48399	47879	48741	59787	71879	73618	77913	80116	80198	80784	114980	167555	217247	227021	257121	259275	232694	221211	33514	34203	33072	30599	29978
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL						48458	47914	48774	59809	71898	73632	78045	80807	81363	82635	120743	174312	238016	281234	352958	373514	363346	371433	357676	166234	113112	110889	100315
Hg	1B2aiv						48399	47879	48741	59787	71879	73618	77913	80116	80198	80784	114980	167555	217247	227021	257121	259275	232694	221211	33514	34203	33072	30599	29978
Hg	2C1						240	110	100	50	30		460	3270	5640	9040	28610	33530	46800	27810	15030	30650	37910	44420	25520	32410	30200	34530	38730
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	39939	40424	41015	41664	42278	95751	96493	97722	108782	121347	124098	139968	144124	147167	153926	207640	269380	421566	436114	466160	490037	479972	482394	472342	297592	257790	272489	260142

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
HCB	1A3dii																		6304	8534	1632	4556	2768	2936	0	0	0	0	0
PCB	2C7a																					165960	573210	454230	0	1	1	2	2