Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AZ Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A4bii																		4886	5105	3510	3284	2599	2288	1957	1596	1
NOx	3B3	9	7	6	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NMVOC	1A3bv	2434	2400	2373	2414	2533	2553	2505	2471	2574	2806	3029	3129	3201	3653	3999	4364	4996	5611	6367	6904	7416	7923	8716	9537	3137	3221
NMVOC	2D3a	19256	19490	19775	20088	20384	20637	20861	21059	21267	21474	21689	21909	22117	22327	22543	22808	23093	23398	23706	24022	24294	24600	24935	25263	25636	11512
SOx	1A1a						12	15	15	14	14	15	45	42	42	49	47	57	146	175	116	114	107	154	148	269	8343

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A3	9	11	11	13	14	17	21	623	878	452	692	741	843	163	1247	843

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	2C1						11040	5060	4600	2300	1380		21160	150420	259440	415840	1316060	1542380	2152800	1279260	691380	1409900	1743860	2042400	1161040	1497778	1394490
Pb	5C1bi																				654030	618800	743860	865020	765830	646490	1002560
Pb	5C1bii																				13520	75920	48230	148070	112320	144690	274170
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL						80920	68603	67560	65014	48788	52133	65879	195550	306086	463212	1372556	1604130	2349358	1492009	1537152	2357284	2873869	3394184	2399889	2705355	2959724
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE						80920	68603	67560	65014	48788	52133	65879	195550	306086	463212	1372556	1604130	2349358	1492009	1537152	2357284	2873869	3394184	2399889	2705355	2959724
Cd	1A1a						11	13	13	12	12	14	40	37	38	43	42	51	276	338	203	205	179	282	268	556	20130
Cd	1B2aiv						48399	47879	48741	59787	71879	73618	77913	80116	80198	80784	114980	167555	217247	227021	257121	259275	232694	221211	221633	34203	33072
Hg	1B2aiv						48399	47879	48741	59787	71879	73618	77913	80116	80198	80784	114980	167555	217247	227021	257121	259275	232694	221211	221633	34203	33072
Hg	2C1						240	110	100	50	30		460	3270	5640	9040	28610	33530	46800	27810	15030	30650	37910	44400	25240	32560	30315