Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: AZ      Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
NOx3B39763221111111111111000000
NMVOC1A3bv2434240023732414253325532505247125742806302931293201365339994364499656116367690474167923871695373137

PM (Unit = Mg)
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
PM2.51A1a49144132134154149182166186162150167190193205
PM2.51A391111131417216238784526927418431631247

HM (Unit = g)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Pb2C1     110405060460023001380 21160150420259440415840131606015423802152800127926069138014099001743860204240011610401497778
Pb5C1bi                   654030618800743860865020765830646490
Pb5C1bii                   135207592048230148070112320144690
PbNATIONALTOTAL     809206860367560650144878852133658791955503060864632121372556160413023493581492009153715223572842873869339418423998892705355
PbNTCOMPLIANCE     809206860367560650144878852133658791955503060864632121372556160413023493581492009153715223572842873869339418423998892705355
Cd1B2aiv     4839947879487415978771879736187791380116801988078411498016755521724722702125712125927523269422121122163334203
CdNATIONALTOTAL     48458479144877459809718987363278045808078136382635120743174312238016281234352958373514363346371433357676166234
CdNTCOMPLIANCE     48458479144877459809718987363278045808078136382635120743174312238016281234352958373514363346371433357676166234
Hg1B2aiv     4839947879487415978771879736187791380116801988078411498016755521724722702125712125927523269422121122163334203
Hg2C1     2401101005030 46032705640904028610335304680027810150303065037910444002524032560
HgNATIONALTOTAL3993940424410154166442278957519649397722108782121347124098139968144124147167153926207640269380421566436114466160490037479972482394472342297592
HgNTCOMPLIANCE3993940424410154166442278957519649397722108782121347124098139968144124147167153926207640269380421566436114466160490037479972482394472342297592