Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: AT      Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	2406	2719	2971	3170	3326	3733	4116	4291	4451	4384	6254	6140	5487	5027	5901	6788	7330	7781	7711	6687	7431	7831	7540	7326	7363	8054	10189	9969	11441	13372	4499	5314
NOx	3Da1	5599	5581	5497	5208	5046	5095	5066	5142	5186	4940	4822	4774	4894	4440	3904	4010	4068	4140	4754	4414	3539	4148	4289	4195	4472	4837	5058	4807	4617	4227	4278	4443
NMVOC	2D3e	13262	12245	11228	10211	9194	8176	8160	8144	8127	8111	6514	6476	6349	5948	4774	5331	5728	5477	5117	4100	3995	3950	3840	3476	3394	3332	2998	3051	2874	2789	2789	2789
NMVOC	3B1b	16215	16039	15064	14934	14998	15873	15333	14552	13963	14049	14680	14484	14109	14325	14474	14095	14037	14034	13897	14188	14080	13711	13474	13455	13370	13381	13219	13121	12910	12731	12482	12603
SOx	1A2d	4300	4912	2600	2246	2208	1971	1955	2022	1706	1295	1216	1103	1314	1172	1172	1154	1198	1171	1086	1056	1168	1088	997	1064	1097	946	958	940	805	524	634	502
SOx	1A3ai(ii)	242	272	296	314	328	367	406	423	439	430	471	460	415	384	455	536	565	598	599	515	562	588	562	533	533	575	534	516	585	673	239	263
SOx	1B2b	2000	1300	2000	2100	1280	1530	1200	67	42	42	43	47	42	49	45	41	48	53	45	56	48	45	45	39	36	39	23	36	23	23	24	30
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	73703	70728	54199	52820	47331	47306	43938	40379	35586	33713	31520	32383	31283	31048	26568	25894	26657	23337	20270	14750	15991	15168	14790	14350	14520	14102	13268	12792	11585	11171	10413	10873
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	73703	70728	54199	52820	47331	47306	43938	40379	35586	33713	31520	32383	31283	31048	26568	25894	26657	23337	20270	14750	15991	15168	14790	14350	14520	14102	13268	12792	11585	11171	10413	10873
NH3	3B3	9968	10059	9792	9498	9262	9213	8996	8986	9295	8354	8070	8296	7934	7872	7424	7593	7428	7722	7118	7255	7163	6868	6737	6500	6355	6277	6130	6151	6024	5978	6016	5986

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	1A3ai(ii)	510	499	449	416	493	580	612	648	648	558	609	637	608	578	577	623	689	665	753	870	309	363
PM10	1A3ai(ii)	510	499	449	416	493	580	612	648	648	558	609	637	608	578	577	623	689	665	753	870	309	363

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A1a	1270316	1169474	1013652	705440	599715	545280	671458	719970	650116	593079	789401	933566	1013668	1151795	1175339	1143559	1349639	1545864	1678215	1670852	2109245	2085003	2116644	2172742	1959599	2031885	1958965	2032381	2002885	1927240	1992041	2103878
Pb	1A2f	4267890	4464200	3691532	3368095	3224413	2846580	2369316	1727883	1210449	765499	302133	308653	302474	282026	267088	310597	310281	361577	308697	274103	284401	284440	306734	339466	312107	332765	297661	304086	302018	322660	288490	312159
Pb	1A2gviii	100756	138071	129012	111576	112462	98588	132060	191888	162320	268615	212831	240803	222155	263728	301373	491067	513718	620612	559946	599927	646529	742243	736798	725685	617114	638701	570234	561048	504792	449330	530273	448246
Pb	1A3bi	161699692	133879152	91558968	58538014	34006309	9892	9255	8892	9451	8899	8745	8992	9917	10389	10322	10238	9909	9846	8974	8923	8845	8592	8388	8270	8188	8359	8431	8461	8667	8562	6986	7359
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	151853365	114035559	83101294	54695500	32994956	9717	9673	9495	9446	9417	9241	8981	8737	8459	8182	7835	7609	7372	6763	6548	6518	6489	6368	6426	6443	6423	6416	6445	6451	6348	5999	6162
Pb	2C1	32091626	27090229	18608240	15144977	12024342	10345682	9143871	10557933	10753035	10428778	11507026	11417731	12141493	12154927	12647154	14172777	14460520	1562936	1552921	1129873	1441272	1487130	1457535	1553903	1520601	1471279	1433816	1584652	1362948	584726	414574	438681
Pb	2C5	3526650	3266910	2513834	2359803	2759868	2624280	2626860	2103552	1579212	1053840	527436	527952	528468	528984	571824	584568	674880	685536	645648	532728	611976	628992	588096	599304	603264	585576	600000	624000	648000	648000	648000	648000
Pb	2G	1227070	1263948	1299033	1377335	1403129	1088338	1158499	1049077	1217600	1987850	1673758	1054814	1655624	1434707	1388175	1565812	1366439	1866668	1751279	1484666	1491417	1645629	1486126	1415877	1382118	750802	1183617	919829	831702	1291599	382383	382383
Cd	2C1	455624	383670	263120	214718	188573	218182	193080	222433	227042	220127	242686	239068	253667	253816	264359	295737	301911	54876	54523	39492	50342	51934	50844	54210	53030	51342	50042	55190	47655	29174	25790	35320
Cd	2G	93290	92684	91968	91254	90475	89059	88409	78758	87069	91559	90412	88311	90239	87222	84675	79537	82485	82092	79763	81112	83626	79560	79434	79526	78718	76731	76445	75168	72106	72392	74320	73571
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1755004	1659902	1381015	1245584	1149936	1107992	1091801	1057140	1007235	1044145	1025555	1039097	1026245	1043859	1042032	1084862	1123996	890746	886929	877220	950958	931805	951550	966343	898863	932605	914179	929660	888641	870478	857545	918354
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)																1084862															857545	918354
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1755004	1659902	1381015	1245584	1149936	1107992	1091801	1057140	1007235	1044145	1025555	1039097	1026245	1043859	1042032	1084862	1123996	890746	886929	877220	950958	931805	951550	966343	898863	932605	914179	929660	888641	870478	857545	918354
Hg	1A1a	348338	355480	243893	197627	180971	195670	197547	196452	154784	176672	194637	218530	203112	223468	205488	204524	209589	193872	195493	181534	216580	224692	214728	211504	189207	197198	183435	181984	178279	171879	162827	160920
Hg	1A2f	701743	580359	434600	293516	148304	101542	95254	114832	97486	104346	107759	136742	135043	154500	130795	148185	170643	175959	186048	174474	146657	142056	152497	184565	196146	169682	133384	167873	166532	170468	180976	180948
Hg	2B10a	270117	252107	234099	216105	198103	180077	180079	180078	110082	45083	86	81	85	90	92	88	92	75	88	72	88	89	87	75	88	88	90	80	67	92	86	83
Hg	2C1	599967	589358	527123	522652	558422	646441	570627	660404	670420	650464	718302	728275	776291	777582	808188	907392	359167	380019	377317	282515	364210	375717	371166	396458	388164	386768	370271	358722	339125	358010	376765	331783
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2515359	2415750	1998116	1748691	1568047	1592004	1511958	1570413	1425966	1381858	1397731	1466258	1469641	1511557	1497380	1610833	1091896	1100666	1116610	989519	1107513	1102812	1114529	1165716	1117840	1104623	1039694	1066798	1033408	1051007	1065988	1036801
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2515359	2415750	1998116	1748691	1568047	1592004	1511958	1570413	1425966	1381858	1397731	1466258	1469641	1511557	1497380	1610833	1091896	1100666	1116610	989519	1107513	1102812	1114529	1165716	1117840	1104623	1039694	1066798	1033408	1051007	1065988	1036801

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	1A1a	12117	12148	1041	263	282	324	372	394	398	417	492	528	589	620	672	679	770	876	966	1047	1349	1299	1345	1399	1272	1319	1334	1393	1365	1331	1422	1527
DIOX	5C1bi	11445	11408	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	5E	2096	2113	2132	2147	2154	2156	2149	2148	2156	2163	2172	2175	2198	2204	2214	1878	1853	2358	2285	2262	2672	2581	2631	2269	2645	2635	2471	2481	2058	2393	2523	2528
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	124386	124315	76562	67070	57199	58843	59396	59764	56607	53366	51977	51867	38500	37522	36629	36260	37558	37287	37064	36800	41584	38731	39595	39781	36814	37524	36928	37427	33877	34386	33962	37278
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	124386	124315	76562	67070	57199	58843	59396	59764	56607	53366	51977	51867	38500	37522	36629	36260	37558	37287	37064	36800	41584	38731	39595	39781	36814	37524	36928	37427	33877	34386	33962	37278
HCB	1A1a	273003	292758	253876	190147	200735	210807	221244	228831	223244	231609	241183	254445	254820	249478	278109	275264	292232	313033	327021	355398	448946	449265	467433	490855	499110	501224	521077	506664	496163	493660	504087	524407
HCB	1A2f	56514	57698	57640	57864	60139	59963	64429	71074	69862	58894	62367	64799	76053	74228	85322	77651	80615	85736	83022	68726	72113	74319	24251588	102462458	107909244	82507	78419	79175	81101	80988	77985	82415
HCB	2C1	8093967	7402228	4551755	3538432	2335420	2597714	2385868	2614454	2473404	2729735	3047935	2951901	3143410	3151403	3274442	3665245	3735374	3952873	3927293	2937905	3787391	3907735	3862325	4128803	4045035	3901348	3791308	4247206	3536555	3862860	3550292	4116549
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	81654962	79616144	67562340	60081913	45710474	42895304	39744738	36154841	30610486	26491825	20335262	20363787	18620573	18113444	17460708	16651468	16700709	16425455	16509378	15529066	18540843	17081175	41416465	120084920	124114195	15941783	16535174	18081446	15911630	17088491	14330406	15921504
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	81654962	79616144	67562340	60081913	45710474	42895304	39744738	36154841	30610486	26491825	20335262	20363787	18620573	18113444	17460708	16651468	16700709	16425455	16509378	15529066	18540843	17081175	41416465	120084920	124114195	15941783	16535174	18081446	15911630	17088491	14330406	15921504
PCB	1A1a	1163265	1420127	1410662	1954568	1844625	1504781	1457297	1808049	2165516	1763678	1108898	1359314	789369	1128116	1131768	968661	831356	565285	566582	515896	546970	279453	172540	177469	144033	254190	362281	218308	168	246	11016	136
PCB	1A2gviii	192112	198777	124382	253673	86189	227043	279360	546769	441571	324733	202086	92284	204819	118322	52332	117901	136760	118785	117017	77861	79377	84039	48310	66683	55892	62181	55633	45345	229	132	169	2191
PCB	2C5	19161561	6855259	2671447	2671446	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	62	63	73	74	70	58	66	68	64	65	65	63	65	68	70	70	70	70