Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AT Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	3Da1	5599	5581	5497	5208	5046	5095	5066	5142	5186	4940	4822	4774	4894	4440	3904	4010	4068	4140	4754	4414	3539	4148	4289	4195	4472	4837	5058	4807	4617	4227	4278
NMVOC	2D3e	13262	12245	11228	10211	9194	8176	8160	8144	8127	8111	6514	6476	6349	5948	4775	5333	5730	5479	5120	4103	3998	3954	3843	3480	3399	3337	3002	3054	2876	2789	2789
SOx	1A2d	4300	4912	2600	2246	2208	1971	1955	2022	1706	1295	1216	1103	1314	1172	1172	1154	1198	1171	1086	1056	1168	1088	997	1064	1097	946	958	940	805	524	634
SOx	1B2b	2000	1300	2000	2100	1280	1530	1200	67	42	42	43	47	42	49	45	41	48	53	45	56	48	45	45	39	36	39	23	36	23	23	24
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	73703	70728	54200	52822	47191	46806	43941	40406	35638	33746	31580	32458	31394	31179	26604	25940	26711	23337	20270	14750	15993	15184	14801	14370	14526	14127	13293	12809	11594	11156	10543
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	73703	70728	54200	52822	47191	46806	43941	40406	35638	33746	31580	32458	31394	31179	26604	25940	26711	23337	20270	14750	15993	15184	14801	14370	14526	14127	13293	12809	11594	11156	10543
NH3	3B3	9968	10059	9792	9498	9262	9213	8996	8986	9295	8354	8070	8296	7934	7872	7424	7593	7428	7722	7118	7255	7163	6868	6737	6500	6355	6277	6130	6151	6024	5978	6016

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	1272645	1171397	1015170	706552	600421	545580	671725	720238	650383	593347	789669	933785	1013838	1151917	1175411	1137701	1337411	1532540	1663617	1648977	2084869	2059246	2091520	2144808	1922393	1991955	1912307	1990808	1963217	1885122	1941951
Pb	1A2d	648306	644935	642693	707474	716781	726852	678143	609912	622802	700379	625748	707417	621122	650111	669102	803372	819446	818352	832219	803332	865663	862076	881846	873659	859732	806288	836000	845574	975450	1009579	959779
Pb	1A2f	4267890	4464200	3691532	3368095	3224413	2846580	2369316	1727883	1210449	765499	302133	308653	302474	282026	267088	310597	310281	361577	308697	274103	284401	284440	306734	339466	312107	332765	297661	304086	302018	322660	288490
Pb	1A2gviii	100756	138071	129012	111576	112462	98588	132060	191888	162320	268615	212831	240803	222155	263728	301373	491067	513718	620612	559946	599927	646529	742243	736798	725685	617114	638701	570234	561048	504792	449330	529524
Pb	1A3bi	161701855	133880837	91560145	58538775	34006740	9892	9255	8893	9451	8899	8745	8992	9917	10389	10342	10202	9860	9814	8946	8909	8837	8588	8388	8276	8197	8370	8446	8480	8691	8664	7059
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	151853406	114035592	83101319	54695517	32994966	9717	9673	9495	9446	9417	9241	8981	8737	8459	8181	7835	7609	7367	6756	6519	6480	6448	6323	6369	6379	6357	6353	6383	6733	6783	5509
Pb	2C1	32091626	27090229	18608240	15144977	12024342	10345682	9143871	10557933	10753035	10428778	11507026	11417731	12141493	12154927	12647154	14172777	14460520	1562936	1552921	1129873	1441272	1487130	1457535	1553903	1520601	1471279	1433816	1584652	1362948	584726	414574
Pb	2C5	3526650	3266910	2513834	2359803	2759868	2624280	2626860	2103552	1579212	1053840	527436	527952	528468	528984	571824	584568	674880	685536	645648	532728	611976	628992	588096	599304	603264	585576	585576	585576	585576	585576	585576
Pb	2G	1221939	1247472	1289762	1374197	1405157	1088338	1158499	1049077	1217600	1987850	1673758	1054814	1655624	1434707	1388175	1565812	1745072	1756786	1751279	1452092	1491417	1645629	1486126	1605877	1382118	750802	1183617	919829	831702	1254131	543557
Cd	2C1	455624	383670	263120	214718	188573	218182	193080	222433	227042	220127	242686	239068	253667	253816	264359	295737	301911	54876	54523	39492	50342	51934	50844	54210	53030	51342	50042	55190	47655	29174	25790
Cd	2G	93280	92653	91950	91248	90479	89059	88409	78758	87069	91559	90412	88311	90239	87222	84675	79537	83200	81885	79763	81051	83626	79560	79434	79885	78718	76731	76445	75168	72106	72322	74624
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1755122	1661061	1383293	1249046	1154785	1114565	1100545	1068388	1021556	1061354	1045673	1061830	1042762	1065093	1063935	1111582	1158947	922727	940813	926821	1012001	982433	1003163	1007747	947946	968740	958068	981725	975797	961814	941572
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1755122	1661061	1383293	1249046	1154785	1114565	1100545	1068388	1021556	1061354	1045673	1061830	1042762	1065093	1063935	1111582	1158947	922727	940813	926821	1012001	982433	1003163	1007747	947946	968740	958068	981725	975797	961814	941572
Hg	1A2f	701094	579675	433984	292874	147621	100790	94439	113936	96614	103602	106982	135932	134118	153542	129783	147366	169843	175133	185250	173803	145906	141286	151768	183777	195347	168898	132576	167036	165693	169616	180142
Hg	2B10a	270117	252107	234099	216105	198103	180077	180079	180078	110082	45083	86	81	85	90	92	88	92	75	88	72	88	89	87	75	88	88	90	80	67	92	86
Hg	2C1	599967	589358	527123	522652	558422	646441	570627	660404	670420	650464	718302	728275	776291	777582	808188	907392	359167	380019	377317	282515	364210	375717	371166	396458	388164	386768	370271	358722	339125	358010	376765
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2506974	2407134	1989842	1740162	1558109	1581592	1499740	1558786	1414394	1370218	1386456	1455186	1457640	1498562	1484607	1592457	1070490	1078874	1092980	961811	1077976	1074424	1088295	1138732	1085654	1072736	1002377	1031547	1000265	1015898	1030168
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2506974	2407134	1989842	1740162	1558109	1581592	1499740	1558786	1414394	1370218	1386456	1455186	1457640	1498562	1484607	1592457	1070490	1078874	1092980	961811	1077976	1074424	1088295	1138732	1085654	1072736	1002377	1031547	1000265	1015898	1030168

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A1a	12117	12148	1041	263	282	324	372	394	398	417	492	528	589	620	672	679	770	876	966	1047	1349	1299	1345	1399	1272	1319	1334	1393	1365	1331	1420
DIOX	5C1bi	11445	11408	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	5E	2096	2113	2132	2147	2154	2156	2149	2148	2156	2163	2172	2175	2198	2204	2214	1878	1853	2358	2285	2262	2672	2581	2631	2269	2645	2635	2471	2481	2058	2393	2374
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	125219	124877	76639	66737	56465	57784	58024	58306	55084	51779	50536	50783	37733	36995	36166	35824	37127	36805	36435	36275	40959	38078	38897	39263	36280	36934	36332	36820	33335	33721	33399
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	125219	124877	76639	66737	56465	57784	58024	58306	55084	51779	50536	50783	37733	36995	36166	35824	37127	36805	36435	36275	40959	38078	38897	39263	36280	36934	36332	36820	33335	33721	33399
HCB	1A1a	273003	292758	253876	190147	200735	210807	221244	228831	223244	231609	241183	254445	254820	249478	278109	275264	292232	313033	327021	355398	448946	449265	467433	490855	499110	501224	521077	506664	496163	493660	505603
HCB	1A2f	56514	57698	57640	57864	60139	59963	64429	71074	69862	58894	62367	64799	76053	74228	85322	77651	80615	85736	83022	68726	72113	74319	24251588	102462458	107909244	82507	78419	79175	81101	80988	77985
HCB	2C1	8093967	7402228	4551755	3538432	2335420	2597714	2385868	2614454	2473404	2729735	3047935	2951901	3143410	3151403	3274442	3665245	3735374	3952873	3927293	2937905	3787391	3907735	3862325	4128803	4045035	3901348	3791308	4247206	3536555	3862860	3550292
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	82922702	80487451	67907782	60057068	45449684	42471230	39223017	35691460	30225887	26196327	20170522	20253481	18556864	18085592	17457059	16655318	16706109	16431295	16516522	15535935	18551816	17099046	41436026	120116154	124133194	15983689	16532647	18100780	15965715	17147898	14589524
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	82922702	80487451	67907782	60057068	45449684	42471230	39223017	35691460	30225887	26196327	20170522	20253481	18556864	18085592	17457059	16655318	16706109	16431295	16516522	15535935	18551816	17099046	41436026	120116154	124133194	15983689	16532647	18100780	15965715	17147898	14589524
PCB	1A1a	1163265	1420127	1410662	1954568	1844625	1504781	1457297	1808049	2165516	1763678	1108898	1359314	789369	1128116	1131768	968661	831356	565285	566582	515896	546970	279453	172540	177469	144033	254190	362281	218308	168	246	11016
PCB	1A2d	1493888	1946548	1431592	1391981	1261708	1131753	1024513	1300245	1214087	860580	955834	847234	959258	906296	905961	980503	1003091	770305	701539	741069	669296	717644	704660	781314	743381	765795	770106	769730	716329	692255	569607
PCB	1A2gviii	192112	198777	124382	253673	86189	227043	279360	546769	441571	324733	202086	92284	204819	118322	52332	117901	136760	118785	117017	77861	79377	84039	48310	66683	55892	62181	55633	45345	229	132	167
PCB	2C5	19161561	6855259	2671447	2671446	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	62	63	73	74	70	58	66	68	64	65	65	63	63	63	63	63	63