Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AT Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	3Da1	5599	5581	5497	5208	5046	5095	5066	5142	5186	4940	4822	4774	4894	4440	3904	4010	4068	4140	4754	4414	3539	4148	4289	4195	4472	4837	5058	4807	4617	4227
NMVOC	2D3e	13262	12245	11228	10211	9194	8176	8160	8144	8127	8111	6514	6476	6349	5948	4775	5333	5730	5479	5120	4103	3998	3954	3843	3480	3399	3337	3002	3054	2876	2789
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	331032	319450	300313	282245	261851	246753	238521	225320	214610	204974	180880	174376	167655	162577	149233	113819	156504	152597	147945	135237	135901	131381	129407	123611	117149	112071	110985	111599	108355	108008
SOx	1A2d	4300	4912	2600	2246	2208	1971	1955	2022	1706	1295	1216	1103	1314	1172	1172	1154	1198	1171	1086	1056	1168	1088	997	1064	1097	946	958	940	805	524
SOx	1B2b	2000	1300	2000	2100	1280	1530	1200	67	42	42	43	47	42	49	45	41	48	53	45	56	48	45	45	39	36	39	23	36	23	23
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	73703	70728	54200	52822	47191	46806	43941	40406	35638	33746	31579	32456	31393	31177	26596	25935	26708	23335	20269	14751	15995	15186	14799	14376	14531	14137	13296	12820	11618	10930
SOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	72919	69681	53170	51661	46152	45859	43198	39980	34982	33281	31050	31817	30707	30437	26540	25882	26668	23298	20235	14715	15956	15153	14765	14336	14495	14099	13259	12782	11582	10895
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	72919	69681	53170	51661	46152	45859	43198	39980	34982	33281	31050	31817	30707	30437	26540	25882	26668	23298	20235	14715	15956	15153	14765	14336	14495	14099	13259	12782	11582	10895
NH3	3B3	8468	8328	8488	8685	8497	8474	8341	8345	8515	7634	7403	7621	7336	7194	6845	6935	6864	7099	6602	6690	6619	6354	6234	6040	5927	5885	5758	5808	5694	5696

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	1272645	1171397	1015170	706552	600421	545580	671725	720238	650383	593347	789669	933785	1013838	1151917	1175411	1137701	1337411	1532540	1663617	1648977	2084869	2059246	2091520	2144808	1922393	1991955	1912307	1990808	1963295	1885154
Pb	1A2c	206305	238197	268572	180373	179527	201959	259536	227998	187649	228978	256315	250998	340889	473933	569278	155795	202201	157818	318740	283064	374196	332017	346310	274626	293126	267360	293730	277256	265902	336153
Pb	1A2d	648306	644935	642693	707474	716781	726852	678143	609912	622802	700379	625748	707417	621122	650111	669102	803372	819446	818352	832219	803332	865663	862076	881846	873659	859732	806288	836000	845574	975450	1009574
Pb	1A2f	4267890	4464200	3691532	3368095	3224413	2846580	2369316	1727883	1210449	765499	302133	308653	302474	282026	267088	310597	310281	361577	308697	274103	284401	284440	306734	339466	312107	332765	297661	304086	302018	322660
Pb	1A2gviii	100756	138071	129012	111576	112462	98588	132060	191888	162320	268615	212831	240803	222155	263728	301373	491067	513718	620612	559946	599927	646529	742243	736798	725685	617114	638701	570234	561048	504797	482166
Pb	1A3bi	161711269	133888762	91566302	58543123	34009470	9893	9256	8894	9452	8900	8747	8993	9918	10390	10343	10203	9862	9816	8948	8910	8839	8590	8390	8278	8199	8372	8448	8482	8694	8668
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	151853406	114035592	83101318	54695517	32994966	9717	9673	9495	9446	9417	9241	8981	8737	8459	8180	7834	7609	7367	6755	6519	6479	6447	6322	6368	6378	6356	6352	6382	6732	6782
Pb	2C1	32091626	27090229	18608240	15144977	12024342	4679299	4259928	4791003	4702700	4906128	5480488	5350192	5649015	5675439	5898690	6492817	6607622	6999941	6974699	5156802	6645315	6859048	6784534	7283849	7152675	6943227	6726375	7439872	6238805	6850015
Pb	2C5	3526650	3266910	2513834	2359803	2759868	2624280	2626860	2103552	1579212	1053840	527436	527952	528468	528984	571824	584568	674880	685536	645648	532728	611976	628992	588096	599304	603264	585576	585576	585576	585576	585576
Pb	2G	1221939	1247472	1289762	1374197	1405157	1088338	1158499	1049077	1217600	1987850	1673758	1054814	1655624	1434707	1388175	1565812	1745072	1756786	1751279	1452092	1491417	1645629	1486126	1605877	1382118	750802	1183617	919829	831702	1254131
Cd	2G	93280	92653	91950	91248	90479	89059	88409	78758	87069	91559	90412	88311	90239	87222	84675	79537	83200	81885	79763	81051	83626	79560	79434	79885	78718	76731	76445	75168	72106	72322
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1755132	1661056	1383276	1249022	1142816	1055380	1053674	1008148	954229	1008207	985096	1001604	977962	1000851	996428	1032919	1077930	1102105	1119837	1059974	1184040	1160241	1179448	1197414	1134381	1148502	1133001	1175496	1136726	1162188
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1754760	1660407	1382753	1248514	1142417	1054976	1052951	1007761	953421	1007672	984409	1000620	976519	999045	994537	1030877	1076159	1100297	1118190	1058261	1182182	1158647	1177832	1195552	1132705	1146754	1131251	1173704	1135047	1160554
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1754760	1660407	1382753	1248514	1142417	1054976	1052951	1007761	953421	1007672	984409	1000620	976519	999045	994537	1030877	1076159	1100297	1118190	1058261	1182182	1158647	1177832	1195552	1132705	1146754	1131251	1173704	1135047	1160554
Hg	1A1a	344770	351974	240880	194236	177201	191564	192184	191876	149851	171571	190464	214247	198413	217880	200106	193756	195487	179493	179542	160196	192904	200787	191928	187735	159639	164665	145703	146401	145039	136480
Hg	1A2f	701094	579675	433984	292874	147621	100790	94439	113936	96614	103602	106982	135932	134118	153542	129783	147366	169843	175133	185250	173803	145906	141286	151768	183777	195347	168898	132576	167036	165693	169616
Hg	2B10a	270117	252107	234099	216105	198103	180077	180079	180078	110082	45083	86	81	85	90	92	88	92	75	88	72	88	89	87	75	88	88	90	80	67	92
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2164481	2057821	1664051	1413387	1199676	1221280	1179856	1151885	967343	950527	909500	971698	942184	982316	948036	989754	1021971	1027550	1042070	923625	1028753	1023659	1038185	1085284	1033379	1013004	950860	1030896	960824	986372
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2164351	2057594	1663868	1413209	1199536	1221139	1179603	1151750	967060	950340	909260	971354	941679	981684	947374	989039	1021351	1026917	1041493	923025	1028103	1023101	1037619	1084632	1032792	1012393	950247	1030269	960236	985800
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2164351	2057594	1663868	1413209	1199536	1221139	1179603	1151750	967060	950340	909260	971354	941679	981684	947374	989039	1021351	1026917	1041493	923025	1028103	1023101	1037619	1084632	1032792	1012393	950247	1030269	960236	985800

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A1a	12117	12148	1041	263	282	324	372	394	398	417	492	528	589	620	672	679	770	876	966	1047	1349	1299	1345	1399	1272	1319	1334	1393	1365	1331
DIOX	5C1bi	11445	11408	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	125243	124905	76662	66757	56476	57792	58028	58310	55085	51790	50547	50799	37766	37025	36118	35746	37003	36718	36403	36247	40926	38090	38923	39337	36381	36857	36613	37151	33552	33658
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	125243	124904	76661	66756	56476	57791	58027	58310	55084	51790	50547	50799	37765	37024	36117	35746	37002	36717	36403	36246	40926	38089	38923	39337	36380	36857	36613	37150	33552	33657
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	125243	124904	76661	66756	56476	57791	58027	58310	55084	51790	50547	50799	37765	37024	36117	35746	37002	36717	36403	36246	40926	38089	38923	39337	36380	36857	36613	37150	33552	33657
HCB	1A1a	273003	292758	253876	190147	200735	210807	221244	228831	223244	231609	241183	254445	254820	249478	278109	275264	292232	313033	327021	355398	448946	449265	467433	490855	499110	501224	521077	506664	496168	493741
HCB	1A2f	56514	57698	57640	57864	60139	59963	64429	71074	69862	58894	62367	64799	76053	74228	85322	77651	80615	85736	83022	68726	72113	74319	24251588	102462458	107909244	82507	78419	79175	81101	80988
HCB	2C1	8093967	7402228	4551755	3538432	2335420	2597714	2385868	2614454	2473404	2729735	3047935	2951901	3143410	3151403	3274442	3665245	3735374	3952873	3927293	2937905	3787391	3907735	3862325	4128803	4045035	3901348	3791308	4247206	3536555	3862874
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	82948236	80516421	67931143	60076089	45461911	42481063	39230466	35697911	30231059	26206249	20181942	20263398	18574163	18111026	17497260	16688552	16728122	16441288	16519172	15532011	18543939	17078592	41404841	120080577	124105130	15937149	16575070	18156395	16002443	17219238
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	82891487	80395045	67858159	60022590	45430601	42454443	39198790	35685066	30186584	26179520	20144930	20209314	18499340	18023215	17410004	16598122	16659257	16375017	16459458	15472518	18477485	17024371	41348747	120009182	124043205	15875591	16515963	18096841	15945967	17164023
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	82891487	80395045	67858159	60022590	45430601	42454443	39198790	35685066	30186584	26179520	20144930	20209314	18499340	18023215	17410004	16598122	16659257	16375017	16459458	15472518	18477485	17024371	41348747	120009182	124043205	15875591	16515963	18096841	15945967	17164023
PCB	1A2d	1493888	1946548	1431592	1391981	1261708	1131753	1024513	1300245	1214087	860580	955834	847234	959258	906296	905961	980503	1003091	770305	701539	741069	669296	717644	704660	781314	743381	765795	770106	769730	717369	692255
PCB	2C5	19161561	6855259	2671447	2671446	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	62	63	73	74	70	58	66	68	64	65	65	63	63	63	63	63