Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AT Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NMVOC	2D3a	16296	17110	17923	18736	19550	20363	20943	21524	22104	22685	18935	18640	18023	18171	15706	18789	21661	22201	22191	18735	19647	19998	20356	22217	19901	22857	22330	21228
SOx	1A2d	4300	4912	2600	2246	2208	1971	1955	2022	1706	1295	1216	1103	1314	1172	1172	1154	1198	1171	1086	1056	1168	1088	997	1064	1097	946	958	960
SOx	1A2gviii	1877	1665	1089	1819	1017	1672	2167	3641	2901	2092	1685	1350	1593	1487	1298	2008	2182	2344	2028	1997	2061	2176	2140	2119	2064	1791	1705	1551
SOx	1B2b	2000	1300	2000	2100	1280	1530	1200	67	42	42	43	47	42	49	45	41	48	53	45	56	48	45	45	39	36	39	23	36
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	73764	70843	54312	52833	47195	46832	44026	40455	35669	33769	31653	32556	31586	31474	27010	25470	26297	23020	19981	14619	15863	15088	14583	14478	14627	13966	13528	12809
NH3	3B3	8548	8405	8566	8762	8571	8546	8411	8413	8583	7693	7458	7676	7388	7244	6890	6979	6907	7141	6640	6727	6653	6386	6264	6068	5952	5909	5774	5814

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	1249270	1148022	991795	679140	574241	519794	645642	692707	621349	559175	755497	850539	974445	1107876	1159299	1112378	1330288	1534880	1668338	1649696	2117535	2039654	2106493	2161451	1916665	1960629	1918891	1924895
Pb	1A2c	206305	238197	268572	180373	179527	201959	259536	227998	187649	228978	256315	250998	340889	473933	569278	261660	253718	226278	379726	345739	370504	350345	361183	362740	341140	367843	366922	378353
Pb	1A2d	648306	644935	642693	707474	716781	726852	678143	609911	622802	700379	625748	707417	621122	650111	669102	790936	802806	814942	784449	797340	794454	789751	790692	831266	837488	801207	818784	849782
Pb	1A2f	4267890	4464200	3691532	3368095	3224413	2846580	2369316	1727883	1210449	765499	302133	308653	302474	282026	267088	310597	310281	361577	308697	274103	284401	284440	306734	339466	312107	332765	297661	304086
Pb	1A2gviii	100757	138071	129012	111576	112463	98588	132059	191886	162318	268615	212831	240803	222155	263728	301373	508763	530316	663429	572888	563376	631988	777440	739001	760968	759168	652288	600527	586890
Pb	1A3	158568379	116965651	82336019	54300476	33970132	17298	17162	14677	14269	14169	13636	12646	12555	11851	10708	10373	10085	9939	9522	9356	9186	9102	8954	8984	8918	8851	9117	9384
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1636670	1686575	1738003	1790999	1845611	13	13	15	16	17	14	12	14	15	15	16	17	17	18	19	17	23	15	15	14	15	152	210
Pb	1A3bi	146511649	116183139	75996283	47473576	27938097	9834	9196	8834	9388	8834	8678	8921	9841	10307	10257	10124	9779	9686	8857	8761	8700	8510	8319	8212	8169	8375	8467	8397
Pb	1A3bii	7858442	5936384	4251914	2787836	1612434	490	474	466	463	462	458	452	438	430	425	432	435	444	427	418	425	436	437	449	459	469	485	500
Pb	2C1	32091626	27090229	18608240	15144977	12024342	4679299	4259928	4791003	4702700	4906128	5480488	5350192	5649015	5675439	5898690	6492817	6607622	6999941	6974699	5156802	6645315	6859048	6784534	7283849	7152675	6943227	6726375	7439872
Pb	2C5	3526650	3266910	2513834	2359803	2759868	2624280	2626860	2103552	1579212	1053840	527436	527952	528468	528984	571824	584568	674880	685536	645648	532728	611976	628992	588096	599304	603264	585576	585576	585576
Pb	2C7a	541448	507817	459092	427458	474146	468308	462470	456632	450794	444956	439118	433280	427443	421605	4681	4826	4927	5525	7250	6305	7819	7668	7438	5737	5189	7554	7554	7554
Pb	2G	1221939	1247472	1289762	1374197	1405157	1088338	1158499	1049077	1217600	1987850	1673758	1054814	1655624	1434707	1388175	1565812	1745072	1756786	1751279	1452092	1491417	1645629	1486126	1605877	1382118	750802	1183617	919829
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	215927863	177039697	122322097	85757539	59945953	17307530	16772299	15597697	14316292	14451579	13592051	13057950	13851959	13938318	13817334	14227882	14801268	15459841	15504027	13212450	15494539	15894563	15686424	16763928	15796526	15051625	15196448	15661562
Cd	1A4ci	30977	34678	33029	33252	30090	33486	36581	35403	33226	36965	35629	40089	38182	40193	42713	25723	31991	32692	33095	34413	36628	37623	37796	46408	39517	42485	43355	43600
Cd	2G	89917	89335	88676	88015	87285	85912	85310	75501	83653	87961	86590	84262	86114	83067	80368	74698	78226	76712	74426	75672	77921	73606	73392	73730	72373	70367	69999	68599
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1757609	1683357	1404237	1293089	1189121	1093881	1108951	1069069	1010314	1050051	1023508	1048466	1060424	1113276	1107574	1102065	1139570	1158688	1158221	1089445	1199901	1200369	1200180	1258310	1200874	1195153	1182961	1219842
Hg	1A2f	701094	579675	433984	292874	147621	100790	94439	113936	96614	103602	106982	135932	134118	153542	129783	147366	169843	175133	185250	173803	145906	141286	151768	183777	195347	168898	132576	167036
Hg	2B10a	270117	252107	234099	216105	198103	180077	180079	180078	110082	45083	86	81	85	90	92	88	92	75	88	72	88	89	87	75	88	88	90	80
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2207310	2102344	1709206	1457454	1244121	1266063	1226396	1198262	1013640	996260	955538	1016221	987706	1027767	995425	1014407	1042020	1045392	1053910	940736	1036815	1035019	1042769	1115479	1064526	1037643	978869	1053609

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A1a	12113	12143	1037	257	277	319	367	389	392	410	468	468	561	590	659	661	761	871	963	1043	1359	1273	1354	1415	1281	1313	1354	1363
DIOX	1A4ci	1779	1941	1815	1747	1572	1701	1823	1688	1567	1625	1491	1673	1600	1653	1728	1114	1295	1398	1542	1530	1727	1658	1874	2214	1805	2130	1940	2085
DIOX	5C1bi	11445	11408	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	5E	2096	2113	2132	2147	2154	2156	2149	2148	2156	2163	2172	2175	2198	2204	2214	1878	1853	2358	2285	2262	2672	2581	2631	2269	2645	2635	2471	2436
HCB	1A2f	56514	57698	57640	57864	60139	59963	64430	71074	69862	58392	62388	64797	76058	74242	85328	77651	80615	85736	83022	68726	72113	74319	24251588	102462458	107909244	82507	78419	79175
HCB	2C1	8093967	7402228	4551755	3538432	2335420	2597714	2385868	2614454	2473404	2729735	3047935	2951901	3143410	3151403	3274442	3665245	3735374	3952873	3927293	2937905	3787391	3907735	3862325	4128803	4045035	3901348	3791308	4247206
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	76233141	77418626	69987157	64955794	54025959	55114596	57973616	54578614	51982958	49741242	46564005	47758509	44260680	43077464	41422439	36370645	36002338	34665696	35086671	35112654	39756261	37212842	61975987	146013581	145181027	39198206	39542030	40212759
PCB	1A2d	1493888	1946548	1431592	1391981	1261708	1131753	1024513	1300245	1214087	860580	955834	847234	959258	906296	905961	978310	1002729	770354	701539	741071	669296	717644	704676	760926	732929	759232	756651	784426
PCB	2C5	19161561	6855259	2671447	2671446	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	62	63	73	74	70	58	66	68	64	65	65	63	63	63