Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AT Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
SOx	1A2d	4300	4912	2600	2246	2208	1971	1955	2022	1706	1295	1216	1103	1314	1172	1172	1154	1198	1171	1086	1056	1168	1088	997	1064	1097	946	958
SOx	1A2gviii	1952	1757	1192	1925	1121	1781	2258	3464	2909	2092	1683	1360	1592	1494	1295	1648	1926	2116	1777	1811	2027	2245	2230	2602	2153	2271	2227
SOx	1B2b	2000	1300	2000	2100	1280	1530	1200	67	42	42	43	47	42	49	45	41	48	53	45	56	48	45	45	39	36	39	23
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	73896	70996	54479	53005	47370	47009	44146	40305	35703	33788	31679	32592	31616	31512	27013	25647	26393	23016	20255	14639	16314	15344	15099	15133	14866	14655	13838
NH3	3B3	8463	8335	8509	8713	8551	8558	8416	8442	8652	7784	7546	7791	7538	7427	7033	7190	7098	7373	6868	6979	6916	6680	6565	6398	6278	6260	6147

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	52319	52023	50955	50740	50915	50427	48993	47796	48242	45544	46295	45995	45696	46300	44256	44239	44101

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	1249270	1148022	991794	679138	574239	519793	645640	692706	621346	559169	755496	850538	974943	1108372	1159557	1112508	1330493	1535067	1668669	1650083	2117800	2039957	2106887	2161849	1919029	1962958	1889527
Pb	1A2c	206305	238197	268572	180373	179527	201959	259535	227998	187650	228978	256315	250998	340890	473934	569278	328397	333353	257236	491611	346105	371060	350948	362595	380313	343366	370646	236531
Pb	1A2f	4267890	4464200	3691532	3368095	3224413	2846580	2369316	1727883	1210449	765499	302133	308653	302474	282026	267088	310597	310281	361577	308697	274103	284401	284440	306734	337397	310940	331267	296004
Pb	1A3	164107440	121350974	85616743	56583485	35353710	17520	17376	14882	14460	14347	13807	12796	12698	11977	10822	10483	10180	10017	9581	9403	9190	9122	8981	9197	9080	9022	9267
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1636676	1686582	1738010	1791006	1845618	13	13	15	16	17	14	12	14	15	15	16	17	17	18	19	17	23	15	15	14	15	152
Pb	1A3bi	143410197	113989858	74536241	46545297	27385988	9636	9001	8642	9202	8657	8505	8757	9681	10151	10106	9972	9642	9568	8768	8692	8659	8467	8265	8145	8131	8297	8383
Pb	1A3bii	11876093	9191626	6735644	4547115	2675475	618	598	585	574	566	556	539	517	501	489	496	490	483	446	425	421	422	428	434	432	462	474
Pb	2C1	32091626	27090229	18608240	15144977	12024342	4679299	4259928	4791003	4702700	4906128	5480488	5350192	5649015	5675439	5898690	6492817	6607622	6999941	6974699	5156802	6645315	6859048	6784534	7283849	7152675	6943227	6726259
Pb	2C5	3526650	3266910	2513834	2359803	2759868	2624280	2626860	2103552	1579212	1053840	527436	527952	528468	528984	571824	584568	674880	685536	645648	532728	611976	628992	588096	599304	603264	585576	585576
Pb	2C7a	541448	507817	459092	427458	474146	468308	462470	456632	450794	444956	439118	433280	427443	421605	4681	4826	4927	5525	7250	6305	7819	7668	7438	5737	5189	7554	7554
Pb	2G	1221939	1247472	1289762	1374197	1405157	1088338	1158499	1049077	1217600	1987850	1673758	1054814	1655624	1434707	1388175	1565812	1745072	1756786	1751279	1452092	1491417	1645629	1486126	1605877	1382118	750802	1183617
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	217034398	178257335	123461484	86666006	60492263	17285614	16750414	15576624	14297173	14441429	13580991	13121153	13890600	13985802	13829539	14354667	14919736	15506912	15664132	13318814	15680161	16028910	15992200	17022640	15948633	15409271	15584376
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1724834	1649656	1370214	1259493	1153952	1056598	1073816	1043432	977288	1018155	991373	1023617	1040847	1097503	1094848	1140500	1166691	1189094	1198065	1107619	1225605	1226964	1244500	1300717	1224529	1242922	1241146
Hg	1A2f	701094	579675	433984	292874	147621	100790	94439	113936	96614	103602	106982	135932	134118	153542	129783	147366	169843	175133	185250	173803	145906	141286	151768	183660	195281	168813	132482
Hg	1A2gviii	11528	12992	11462	11647	10624	6490	8027	4268	6529	14645	11465	11862	11405	13450	14314	16757	21025	28804	24276	26084	30772	35922	36330	45967	40163	41368	42129
Hg	2B10a	270117	252107	234099	216105	198103	180077	180079	180078	110082	45083	86	81	85	90	92	88	92	75	88	72	88	89	87	75	88	88	90
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2162902	2057393	1663811	1411891	1198005	1219668	1180299	1152116	967166	950007	909315	974820	942176	982128	948132	983143	1007686	1006168	1018528	903551	1002514	1004328	1017411	1083077	1023410	1006179	950086

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A1a	12113	12143	1037	257	277	319	367	389	392	410	467	468	561	589	659	660	761	875	971	1067	1424	1363	1473	1563	1503	1532	1539
DIOX	1A2gviii	459	531	496	494	470	427	510	241	376	905	749	791	752	892	953	1097	1372	1877	1593	1693	2003	2345	2410	3037	2673	2720	2775
DIOX	5C1bi	11445	11408	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	5E	2416	2436	2459	2476	2485	2488	2481	2480	2489	2496	2506	2511	2535	2542	2554	2507	2527	2595	2567	2589	2672	2615	2656	2600	2678	2635	2668
HCB	1A2f	56514	57698	57640	57864	60139	59963	64430	71074	69862	58392	62388	64797	76056	74241	85414	77651	80615	85736	83022	68726	72113	74319	24251588	102461235	107908554	81622	77440
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	76266228	77455584	70025612	64992013	54059278	55144891	57993199	54548266	51980654	49711816	46557279	47767489	44215074	43001738	41345955	42325199	41403543	39230690	40127469	38810018	44041413	41082455	67149893	148527749	147481151	42245497	42583724
PCB	1A2d	1493887	1946547	1431591	1391979	1261706	1131751	1024512	1300247	1214087	860580	955834	847234	959258	906296	905961	980017	1003651	771403	701539	741071	668295	719405	705073	761261	734377	766329	764856
PCB	2C5	19161561	6855259	2671447	2671446	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	62	63	73	74	70	58	66	68	64	65	65	63	63