Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AT Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NMVOC	1A3	71432	64735	58152	51450	46601	41249	36735	32859	29506	26539	23766	21402	19510	17809	16498	15291	13306	12228	11170	10059	9465	9143	8563	8151	7773	7618
NMVOC	2D3a	16296	17110	17923	18736	19550	20363	20660	20957	21254	21551	21848	21932	22041	22139	22279	22431	22548	22622	22694	22748	22802	22876	22979	23118	23300	23300
NMVOC	2D3e	13262	12245	11228	10211	9194	8176	8160	8144	8127	8111	8094	8339	8585	8834	8675	8516	8358	8199	8041	7882	7724	7565	7407	7407	7407	7407
SOx	1A2a	6729	5349	3479	3940	4243	4215	4760	4755	4702	4734	4465	4794	4896	5036	4707	5307	5774	5614	5291	3989	4925	5084	5191	5309	5342	5432
SOx	1A2d	4300	4912	2600	2247	2209	1974	1956	2023	1706	1296	1217	1103	1315	1172	1172	1154	1198	1171	1086	1056	1168	1088	997	1064	1097	946
SOx	1A2gviii	1947	1751	1185	1920	1114	1773	2250	3459	2904	2087	1678	1354	1587	1489	1290	1696	1898	2062	1902	1954	2113	2229	2137	2304	1967	2170
SOx	1B2b	2000	1300	2000	2100	1280	1530	1200	67	42	42	43	47	42	49	45	41	48	53	45	56	48	45	45	39	36	39
SOx	2B10a	1565	1292	1019	746	729	712	695	678	612	595	595	572	572	572	572	572	572	572	572	524	497	471	445	418	392	365
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	74571	71588	55201	53581	47926	47530	44809	40129	35493	33588	31559	32432	31623	31668	27079	25946	26629	23166	20585	15115	16701	15569	15065	14941	14778	14902
NH3	1A3	1080	1471	1851	2159	2439	2608	2759	2868	2990	3105	3090	2935	2692	2431	2191	1989	1850	1691	1564	1454	1436	1431	1351	1326	1281	1281
NH3	1A3bi	1081	1617	1925	2170	2351	2492	2492	2528	2838	2779	2779	2804	2950	2907	2707	2490	2316	2126	1838	1721	1631	1536	1441	1371	1290	1273
NH3	3B3	8463	8335	8509	8713	8551	8558	8416	8442	8652	7784	7546	7791	7538	7427	7033	7190	7098	7373	6868	6979	6916	6680	6565	6398	6278	6260
CO	1A3	486031	442194	400989	359511	330524	297137	271080	248897	230677	215107	198996	184742	173028	160726	148056	137869	122674	113675	104992	96720	92614	91839	85803	82591	79216	78106

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	904846	944469	755581	585576	528131	518723	643884	691199	620444	559060	754709	850688	987337	1150140	1159402	1112215	1330071	1534312	1663535	1648073	2115918	1947176	2003763	2027952	1793470	1882285
Pb	1A2b	543502	509413	459859	428975	475305	474905	476000	476237	476069	476371	476141	475662	476030	476010	476012	475859	475815	475907	475868	476042	475485	475470	475448	477672	477337	478638
Pb	1A2c	206305	238197	268572	180373	179527	201959	259535	227998	187650	228978	256315	250998	340890	473934	569278	296137	295866	257279	489404	528200	526175	524981	365866	309036	235740	276589
Pb	1A2f	4267890	4464200	3691532	3368095	3224413	2846580	2369316	1727883	1210449	765499	302133	308653	302474	282026	267088	310597	310281	361577	308697	274103	284401	284440	306734	337397	310940	331264
Pb	1A3	156603776	115818051	81713119	54017880	33786528	17059	16925	14445	14031	13926	13401	12409	12330	11630	10495	10171	9890	9756	9401	9246	9284	9461	9348	9415	9476	9605
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1636676	1686582	1738010	1791006	1845618	13	13	15	16	17	14	12	14	15	15	16	17	17	18	19	17	23	15	14	14	15
Pb	1A3bi	144546917	114755368	75035741	46854723	27568421	9719	9083	8726	9290	8745	8595	8852	9784	10263	10224	10099	9779	9702	8876	8797	8610	8287	8075	7939	7825	7878
Pb	1A3bii	11378807	8806716	6453550	4356662	2563408	601	583	571	561	553	544	529	508	493	481	489	485	480	446	426	422	423	430	428	427	455
Pb	2C1	32091626	27090229	18608240	15144977	12024342	4679299	4259928	4791003	4702700	4906128	5480488	5350192	5649015	5675439	5898690	6492817	6607622	6999941	6974699	5156802	6645315	6859048	6784534	7283849	7152675	6940940
Pb	2C5	3526650	3266910	2513834	2359803	2759868	2624280	2626860	2103552	1579212	1053840	527436	527952	528468	528984	571824	584568	674880	685536	645648	532728	611976	628992	588096	599304	603264	585576
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	215067117	176322307	121539759	84837708	58805666	16071945	15516734	14455189	12970672	12406615	11883180	11990442	12170383	12501063	12825100	13216823	13534949	14289060	14635325	12723663	14904747	14822045	14771901	15501797	14598311	14725234
Cd	2C1	455624	383670	263120	214718	176635	159035	146256	162240	159771	167053	182191	178914	188868	189562	197186	217479	221508	234661	233676	172728	222465	229589	226905	243378	238846	231536
Cd	5C1bi	51347	41643	648	756	900	34	35	36	38	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	32	26	20	13	6	6	6	6	6	6
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1587070	1535981	1256285	1169379	1075159	980505	1002626	973001	902678	951099	925662	954416	975924	1034679	1043165	1105443	1123361	1165507	1186243	1081545	1203359	1181444	1189540	1244565	1162905	1185828
Hg	1A1a	327323	340134	225431	185710	170164	186566	183683	184541	145426	170835	186406	212408	196296	215688	199925	192712	196081	180470	180324	159263	194743	196601	185855	179950	152694	158418
Hg	1A2f	701094	579675	433984	292874	147621	100790	94439	113936	96614	103602	106982	135932	134118	153542	129783	147366	169843	175133	185250	173803	145906	141286	151768	183660	195281	168811
Hg	1A2gviii	11528	12992	11462	11647	10624	6490	8027	4268	6529	14645	11465	11862	11405	13450	14314	17827	20551	28374	28640	32768	34196	35645	34681	39624	34989	37417
Hg	2B10a	270117	252107	234099	216105	198103	180077	180079	180078	110082	45083	86	81	85	90	92	88	92	75	88	72	88	89	87	75	88	88
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2144645	2040928	1643781	1394628	1181763	1202564	1161338	1133674	949441	935525	892493	958562	924241	967846	938052	977999	997383	998827	1013604	892769	990412	979786	984653	1049154	991251	974353

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A2b	47866	22454	285	272	300	297	341	343	342	344	342	338	341	341	342	340	340	341	341	342	337	337	337	345	345	355
DIOX	1A2gviii	459	531	496	494	470	427	510	241	376	905	749	791	752	892	953	1168	1340	1850	1881	2137	2231	2327	2300	2615	2325	2443
DIOX	1A3biii	355	387	397	413	409	421	551	474	548	511	557	599	635	676	674	733	789	783	737	775	910	879	904	1020	993	1053
DIOX	1A4bi	41821	46137	41713	39568	35232	36658	38464	33523	31590	31148	28341	28733	25043	23279	22305	23103	21364	19435	19353	17648	19632	17066	17712	20197	14720	16762
DIOX	2C3	2402	2402	2401	1800	1800	1800	1800	5700	5700	1330	1330	1325	1319	1314	1309	1303	1298	1293	1287	1282	1277	1271	1266	1261	1261	1261
DIOX	5C1bi	11445	11408	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	160744	135463	76872	67094	56321	58509	59844	59353	56238	53631	52089	51815	37852	36664	36514	38001	37177	35854	35845	32643	36318	33044	33791	37589	30856	33153
HCB	1A2b	15951362	7481371	90266	83058	91905	91617	91839	92096	91930	92183	91980	91572	91899	91897	91912	91774	91739	91861	91826	91929	91462	91463	91438	92446	92417	93466
HCB	1A2f	56514	57698	57640	57864	60139	59963	64430	71074	69862	58392	62388	64797	76056	74241	85414	77651	80615	85736	83022	68726	72113	74319	24251588	102461235	107908554	81499
HCB	1A4bi	50352392	55784499	50604329	48130453	42981835	44945160	47385842	41512494	39385421	39194267	35692516	37243616	33394092	31966425	31487424	32753960	30334407	27494017	27225012	25373702	28747460	25085185	25997092	29710841	21910972	24851754
HCB	2C1	8093967	7402228	4551755	3538432	2335420	2597714	2385868	2614454	2473404	2729735	3047935	2951901	3143410	3151403	3274442	3665245	3735374	3952873	3927293	2937905	3787391	3907735	3862325	4128803	4045035	3901341
HCB	2C3	1200000	1200000	1200000	900000	900000	900000	900000	2850000	2850000	665000	665000	662339	659679	657018	654358	651697	649037	646376	643716	641055	638395	635734	633074	630413	630413	630413
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	91935261	84629692	69669727	64024069	51976912	53063150	55756054	51864332	49093895	47573122	44301561	45858810	42016823	41016295	41026630	42973929	40369928	38276106	38184841	34291781	39167908	35326637	60598657	143810945	140281058	35781489
PCB	2C1	19338620	19071855	17567768	18047162	19297218	22200000	19650000	22890000	23340000	22800000	25110000	25680000	27136918	27379588	28439505	31219945	31737745	33667678	33604264	25102359	32128988	33240440	32930078	35246547	34727500	33704262
PCB	2C5	94396700	79428000	60921000	59813800	69980800	69980800	70049600	70118400	70187200	70256000	70324800	70393600	70462400	70531200	76243200	77942400	89984000	91404800	86086400	71030400	81596800	83865600	78412800	79907200	80435200	78076800
PCB	2C7c	71767800	67310100	60851700	56658600	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62848000
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	194228745	175762567	147967971	142955599	159731719	161981628	159263667	162906246	163231955	161855046	163347375	163875602	164765671	165076737	171625743	175725061	188103635	190727647	185309771	161401823	178993837	181997398	176125617	179889281	179894898	176726194