Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: AT      Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NMVOC	2D3a	16296	17110	17923	18736	19550	20363	20660	20957	21254	21551	21848	21932	22041	22139	22279	22431	22548	22622	22694	22748	22802	22876	22979	23118	23300
SOx	1A2a	6729	5348	3479	3940	4243	4215	4760	4755	4702	4734	4465	4795	4896	5036	4707	5307	5774	5614	5291	3989	4926	5084	5188	5308	5342
SOx	1A2d	4300	4912	2600	2247	2209	1974	1956	2023	1706	1295	1216	1103	1315	1172	1172	1154	1198	1171	1086	1056	1168	1088	997	1064	1097
SOx	1A2gviii	1957	1821	1271	1985	1197	1855	2338	3634	3073	2195	1733	1450	1657	1574	1426	1879	2082	2338	2278	2503	2502	2647	2416	2625	2696
SOx	1B2b	2000	1300	2000	2100	1280	1530	1200	67	42	42	43	47	42	49	45	41	48	53	45	56	48	45	45	39	36
SOx	2B10a	1565	1292	1019	746	729	712	695	678	612	595	595	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766
NH3	1A3	1080	1471	1850	2159	2438	2608	2758	2868	2990	3105	3090	2935	2692	2431	2191	1989	1850	1691	1566	1454	1412	1428	1350	1311	1281
NH3	1A3bi	1080	1615	1923	2168	2348	2490	2490	2526	2835	2776	2776	2801	2947	2904	2704	2488	2314	2123	1836	1719	1609	1534	1439	1358	1292
NH3	3B3	8463	8335	8509	8713	8551	8558	8416	8442	8652	7784	7546	7791	7538	7427	7033	7190	7098	7373	6868	6979	6916	6680	6565	6398	6278
CO	1A2a	210717	185444	226939	237416	250639	182164	206695	211644	197836	121152	164529	140831	134419	147243	153178	138266	148002	138862	124705	116999	107833	120851	120666	125305	134641
CO	1A4bi	416154	456059	413184	392037	356948	368788	387524	332942	319666	318314	295091	303712	275969	264151	251023	255063	242065	230479	235086	218082	243945	219922	229304	248115	202958
CO	1A4bii	21712	21764	21875	21930	21672	21176	20657	20134	19606	19232	18913	18691	18403	18121	17901	17632	17413	17186	16989	16852	16772	16802	16839	16905	17142

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A1a	904843	944489	755578	585592	528127	518716	643858	691226	620435	559083	754704	850672	987872	1150656	1159675	1180296	1330072	1537756	1668408	1651728	2157518	1947174	2003757	1942633	1815421
Pb	1A2b	543502	509414	459859	428975	475305	474905	476000	476238	476070	476371	476141	475662	476030	476010	476012	475859	475815	475906	475868	476058	475495	475482	475454	477682	477602
Pb	1A2c	206305	238197	268572	180373	179527	201959	259536	227998	187649	228997	256316	251034	340921	473936	569302	296158	295897	257308	489453	567361	526196	525043	365930	312076	272144
Pb	1A2f	4267890	4464200	3691532	3368095	3224413	2846580	2369316	1727883	1210449	765499	302133	308653	302474	282026	267088	310597	310281	361577	308697	274103	284401	284440	306734	337397	341606
Pb	1A3	156745576	115921912	81785614	54065105	33815435	17069	16935	14454	14041	13936	13410	12418	12339	11639	10503	10179	9898	9764	9411	9256	9272	9464	9342	9368	3439
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1636676	1686582	1738010	1791006	1845618	13	13	15	16	17	14	12	14	15	15	16	17	17	18	19	17	23	15	14	4
Pb	1A3bi	144538917	114749926	75032224	46852547	27567156	9718	9083	8726	9290	8745	8595	8852	9784	10264	10224	10099	9779	9701	8874	8796	8614	8279	8060	7920	1822
Pb	1A3bii	11389644	8815108	6459695	4360823	2565839	602	583	571	561	554	545	529	508	493	482	490	486	480	448	428	423	424	430	419	348
Pb	2C1	32091626	27090229	18608240	15144977	12024342	4679299	4259928	4791003	4702700	4906128	5480488	5350192	5649015	5675439	5898690	6492817	6607622	6999941	6974699	5156802	6645315	6859048	6784534	7283849	7152675
Pb	2C5	3526650	3266910	2513834	2359803	2759868	2624280	2626860	2103552	1579212	1053840	527436	527952	528468	528984	571824	584568	674880	685536	645648	532728	611976	628992	588096	930864	890928
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	215074415	176329593	121548301	84846159	58813237	16082892	15528876	14469092	12993016	12431921	11908162	11982207	12128847	12419941	12814214	13249785	13499036	14296535	14663517	12768897	14995189	14877852	14819771	15792306	15114133
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	215074415	176329593	121548301	84846159	58813237	16082892	15528876	14469092	12993016	12431921	11908162	11982207	12128847	12419941	12814214	13249785	13499036	14296535	14663517	12768897	14995189	14877852	14819771	15792306	15114133
Cd	1A4bi	312019	345590	315652	301149	275409	286390	302952	269906	257903	256624	238400	245318	222319	212985	202096	212333	204100	198052	203830	191018	212369	197477	207314	230567	193034
Cd	2C1	455624	383670	263120	214718	176635	159035	146256	162240	159771	167053	182191	178914	188868	189562	197186	217479	221508	234661	233676	172728	222465	229589	226905	243378	238846
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1581124	1530424	1250864	1164775	1069128	975517	998643	968682	900867	947374	922557	945402	950356	990996	990179	1067237	1079081	1127944	1149918	1052690	1174813	1154458	1164523	1209558	1145563
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1581124	1530424	1250864	1164775	1069128	975517	998643	968682	900867	947374	922557	945402	950356	990996	990179	1067237	1079081	1127944	1149918	1052690	1174813	1154458	1164523	1209558	1145563
Hg	1A2f	701094	579675	433984	292874	147621	100790	94439	113936	96614	103602	106982	135932	134118	153542	129783	147366	169843	175133	185250	173803	145906	141286	151768	152958	154864
Hg	1A2gviii	11528	12992	11462	11647	10625	6490	8027	4268	6529	14644	11466	11861	11407	13451	14315	17827	20551	28373	28640	32962	34599	36039	34678	41012	41919
Hg	2B10a	270117	252107	234099	216105	198103	180077	180079	180078	110082	45083	86	81	85	90	92	88	92	75	88	72	88	89	87	75	88
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2143397	2039723	1642618	1393640	1180510	1201597	1160548	1132863	949307	934928	892040	956524	921107	963311	935088	981328	995093	999870	1016164	894438	995187	983974	988651	1017773	961083
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2143397	2039723	1642618	1393640	1180510	1201597	1160548	1132863	949307	934928	892040	956524	921107	963311	935088	981328	995093	999870	1016164	894438	995187	983974	988651	1017773	961083

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A2b	47866	22454	285	272	300	297	341	343	342	344	342	338	341	341	342	340	340	341	341	342	337	337	337	345	346
DIOX	1A2gviii	459	531	496	494	470	427	510	241	376	905	749	791	752	893	953	1168	1340	1850	1881	2150	2257	2354	2300	2707	2785
DIOX	1A3biii	355	387	397	413	409	420	551	473	548	511	557	599	634	676	673	733	788	783	737	775	908	881	911	1031	1013
DIOX	1A4bi	41728	46021	41597	39451	35139	36541	38348	33406	31473	31032	28202	28570	24902	23115	22119	22962	21191	19915	20021	17463	19473	16924	17537	20035	14565
DIOX	2C3	2402	2402	2401	1800	1800	1800	1800	5700	5700	1330	1330	1325	1319	1314	1309	1303	1298	1293	1287	1282	1277	1271	1266	1261	1256
DIOX	5C1bi	11445	11408	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	160686	135391	76814	67032	56261	58483	59840	59316	56329	53615	52044	51559	37595	36361	36188	37773	36892	36321	36540	33140	36913	33689	34442	37718	31608
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	160686	135391	76814	67032	56261	58483	59840	59316	56329	53615	52044	51559	37595	36361	36188	37773	36892	36321	36540	33140	36913	33689	34442	37718	31608
HCB	1A2b	15951361	7481372	90267	83059	91905	91617	91838	92099	91931	92186	91981	91574	91899	91895	91912	91773	91741	91860	91829	91945	91471	91474	91444	92456	92595
HCB	1A2f	56539	57681	57640	57857	60130	59949	64421	71069	69841	58390	62388	64780	76034	74241	85422	77651	80615	85736	83022	68726	72113	74319	24251588	102461235	107908554
HCB	1A4bi	50278116	55691325	50511359	48037349	42907391	44851932	47292926	41419257	39292304	39101514	35580976	37113319	33282546	31836297	31338734	32634624	30190882	28270223	28268217	25208438	28624794	24979997	25859201	29582930	21788274
HCB	2C1	8093967	7402228	4551755	3538432	2335420	2597714	2385868	2614454	2473404	2729735	3047935	2951901	3143410	3151403	3274442	3665245	3735374	3952873	3927293	2937905	3787391	3907735	3862325	4128803	4045035
HCB	2C3	1200000	1200000	1200000	900000	900000	900000	900000	2850000	2850000	665000	665000	662339	659679	657018	654358	651697	649037	646376	643716	641055	638395	635734	633074	630413	627752
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	91934259	84623630	69674185	64016908	51931952	53090896	55804338	51909530	49337240	47572229	44278174	45654236	41812130	40774448	40766534	42771591	40137747	39112196	39354500	35208194	40254759	36562627	61882662	144203223	140954945
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	91934259	84623630	69674185	64016908	51931952	53090896	55804338	51909530	49337240	47572229	44278174	45654236	41812130	40774448	40766534	42771591	40137747	39112196	39354500	35208194	40254759	36562627	61882662	144203223	140954945
PCB	2C1	19338620	19071855	17567768	18047162	19297218	22200000	19650000	22890000	23340000	22800000	25110000	25680000	27136918	27379588	28439505	31219945	31737745	33667678	33604264	25102359	32128988	33240440	32930078	35246547	34727500
PCB	2C5	94396700	79428000	60921000	59813800	69980800	69980800	70049600	70118400	70187200	70256000	70324800	70393600	70462400	70531200	76243200	77942400	89984000	91404800	86086400	71030400	81596800	83865600	78412800	124115200	118790400
PCB	2C7c	71767800	67310100	60851700	56658600	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000	62847000
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	194228739	175762560	147967965	142955593	159731712	161981624	159263666	162906242	163231962	161855044	163347370	163875579	164765648	165076710	171625713	175737967	188133110	190754479	185352302	161432987	179040650	182044767	176165238	224115442	218295216
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	194228739	175762560	147967965	142955593	159731712	161981624	159263666	162906242	163231962	161855044	163347370	163875579	164765648	165076710	171625713	175737967	188133110	190754479	185352302	161432987	179040650	182044767	176165238	224115442	218295216