Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AT Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NMVOC	1A3	69825	69127	69022	68188	66689	61699	56441	50971	45819	41080	36163	31742	27998	24710	21947	19603	17538	15788	14266	12957	12056	11430	10648
NMVOC	1A3bi	40267	44918	43387	42257	40375	36903	31777	27949	27262	23059	20462	19030	19051	17993	15908	13817	11683	10010	7987	6999	6116	5290	4749
SOx	1A1a	11788	13307	5733	6633	4682	5928	4311	5422	3532	3679	3684	4411	3970	4220	3428	3561	4050	3069	3074	3067	3184	2898	2438
SOx	1A2a	6729	5348	3479	3940	4243	4215	4760	4755	4702	4734	4465	4795	4896	5036	4707	5313	5768	5617	5286	3991	4958	5084	5232
SOx	1A2c	755	796	568	562	609	532	653	741	660	776	707	673	760	901	878	809	628	530	804	810	955	920	877
SOx	1A2d	4300	4912	2600	2247	2209	1974	1956	2023	1706	1295	1216	1103	1315	1172	1172	1154	1198	1171	1086	1056	1168	1088	997
SOx	2B5a	1565	1292	1019	746	729	712	695	678	612	595	595	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766
NH3	1A3	2862	4034	5221	6280	7313	7187	6928	6482	6019	5519	4960	4365	3792	3246	2731	2293	1888	1569	1327	1107	967	868	774
NH3	1A3bi	2715	4216	5157	5978	6693	6511	5943	5447	5483	4785	4359	4107	4117	3870	3374	2884	2375	1988	1560	1328	1146	985	878
CO	1A3	655192	658041	667032	668741	663857	616365	569257	519957	476053	435196	392781	351122	314864	280822	249727	223978	197660	175402	158241	142130	130218	122342	111998
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	1436397	1500468	1471507	1439650	1386451	1273535	1248324	1151278	1110405	1031931	958914	920503	884886	878138	839995	814303	773766	722087	685069	637713	642313	605739	609296

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A1a	904845	944650	755532	585577	528110	518748	643830	691214	620456	559158	754735	850836	987408	1150161	1159505	1180475	1330241	1558025	1689739	1761429	2235835	2184220	2087379
Pb	1A2b	4082152	3788323	2985693	2800778	2653528	3111185	3112280	2613662	2088638	1564083	1038997	1052318	1052686	1052666	1052668	1052515	1052471	1052562	1052561	1052636	1052116	1052110	1052082
Pb	1A2fi	4403648	4641393	3862418	3521967	3376125	2985540	2535021	1855401	1377287	1034080	514963	552692	524432	548289	568474	691801	735326	960241	958873	1060006	1023805	1123656	1092929
Pb	1A3	167314335	124116300	88554581	59095150	37107775	17939	17759	15202	14695	14451	13827	12734	12515	11732	10565	10179	10005	9830	9515	9202	9044	9039	8816
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1726028	1778658	1832894	1888783	1946376	14	14	16	17	18	14	12	15	16	15	17	18	18	19	20	18	24	16
Pb	1A3bi	146935059	117243060	77535892	48837766	28829419	9918	9261	8891	9459	8895	8729	8977	9898	10363	10301	10131	9918	9816	8942	8721	8622	8282	8074
Pb	1A3bii	14664729	11391664	8377884	5666721	3344715	815	790	771	757	746	734	711	683	664	649	659	651	629	574	534	520	508	490
Pb	2C1	32091626	27090229	18608240	15144977	12024342	4679299	4259928	4791003	4702700	4906128	5480488	5350192	5649015	5675439	5898690	6492817	6607622	6999941	6974699	5156802	6645315	6859048	6784534
Pb	FUTOTAL	218797075	170081921	122928009	88145852	61670128	16082662	15524060	14464321	12987385	12426618	11906673	12027592	12161089	12461880	12804257	13626592	13688377	14385968	14793788	12744597	15049857	15081815	14991262
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	218958759	179882875	124860074	87417207	59900184	16082376	15523756	14463596	12987696	12426382	11906764	12028491	12163446	12465268	12807939	13630420	13691893	14389523	14796114	12741800	15044730	15073554	14984829
Cd	2C1	455624	383670	263120	214718	176635	159035	146256	162240	159771	167053	182191	178914	188868	189562	197186	217479	221508	234661	233676	172728	222465	229589	226905
Cd	FUTOTAL	1583331	1532213	1252502	1167471	1067413	978174	998937	969414	901575	947308	922698	948595	933132	970175	973566	1065707	1055667	1088449	1117099	1068158	1186979	1161025	1203608
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1583579	1532721	1252891	1167824	1067652	978430	999554	969715	902343	947838	923433	949676	934742	972216	975725	1067935	1057581	1090380	1118714	1069675	1188658	1162450	1205117
Hg	1A2fi	712599	592667	445445	304521	158223	107280	102480	118224	103162	118233	118454	147788	145402	166980	144089	166090	190393	203533	213828	206148	179936	178873	192248
Hg	2B5a	270117	252107	234099	216105	198103	180077	180079	180078	110082	45083	86	81	85	90	92	88	92	75	88	72	88	89	87
Hg	FUTOTAL	2143667	2039909	1642751	1393730	1181008	1201761	1160186	1132701	949086	934607	892014	956058	919025	960484	931155	995549	1006437	1009179	1025540	899030	1004143	1001262	1005716
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2143754	2040086	1642887	1393854	1181092	1201851	1160402	1132806	949355	934793	892272	956436	919588	961198	931910	996329	1007107	1009855	1025985	898002	1002483	998758	1003740

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
DIOX	1A2b	50336	24922	2739	2126	2152	2163	2207	6109	6107	1740	1738	2217	2220	2220	2220	2219	2219	2220	2220	2220	2216	2216	2216
DIOX	6Cb	11445	11408	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
DIOX	FUTOTAL	160689	135127	76765	67049	56356	58569	59832	59368	56213	53545	51914	52792	39581	39064	39510	42496	39368	38040	38202	35441	39478	34683	37277
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	160760	135467	76918	67125	56357	58583	59935	59400	56412	53687	52124	53094	39994	39556	40011	42999	39778	38443	38549	35730	39803	34944	37568
HCB	1A2b	17151361	8681372	1290267	983059	991905	991617	991838	2942099	2941931	757186	756981	998074	998399	998395	998412	998273	998241	998360	998363	998381	997939	997961	997920