Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: AM      Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
NH3NATIONALTOTAL250001105010664423241239014557   16747      18642 205001935416254

PM (Unit = Mg)
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
PM2.51A4bi       15      33 2426490
PM2.53B3                1611
PM101A4bi       15      33 2426502
TSP1A4bi       15      33 2426528
TSP2C2       60      8 536370
BC1A4bi                1147
BCNATIONALTOTAL                517551

HM (Unit = g)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
Pb1A3bi                 829000      654000 1000720000700000
Pb2C7a                 7985000      5190000 10700002990000880000
PbNATIONALTOTAL1100000082000061000079000034000033400090009000100005300  10000002500000   8877405      5888203 120800037101551722562
Cd1A2gviii                 11493      1600  00
Cd1A4bi                 31603      31603  57933
CdNATIONALTOTAL                 209043      4407 60001812894
HgNATIONALTOTAL10000100008000900010001000800          347630      341213 170003701616624751

POP (Unit = mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
PCBNATIONALTOTAL                 12046050      12240050   8577