Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: AM      Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	25000	110	50	10	6	6	4	4	2	3	2	4	12390	14557				16747							18642		20500	19354	16254

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	1A4bi								15							33		24	26	490
PM2.5	3B3																	16	1	1
PM10	1A4bi								15							33		24	26	502
TSP	1A4bi								15							33		24	26	528
TSP	2C2								60							8		53	63	70
BC	1A4bi																	1	1	47
BC	NATIONALTOTAL																	517	5	51

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A3bi																		829000							654000		1000	720000	700000
Pb	2C7a																		7985000							5190000		1070000	2990000	880000
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	11000000	820000	610000	790000	340000	334000	9000	9000	10000	5300			1000000	2500000				8877405							5888203		1208000	3710155	1722562
Cd	1A2gviii																		11493							1600			0	0
Cd	1A4bi																		31603							31603			5	7933
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL																		209043							4407		6000	18	12894
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	10000	10000	8000	9000	1000	1000	800											347630							341213		17000	37016	16624751

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL																		12046050							12240050				8577