Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: AL      Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A2b										252	305	309	305	246	134	134	134	134	111	23								14	14	14
NOx	1A2e										610	468	600	738	818	593	666	584	480	618	259	404	459	454	359	513	408	238	453	391	391
NOx	1A2f						5	2			344	250	314	186	219	392	341	1493	1061	681	1329	2701	2311	1174	1031	1852	1438	1742	3140	2539	2539
NOx	1A4bi	1457	1498	1441	1303	1237	1240	1258	1200	1090	484	485	489	1114	495	910	852	851	750	738	776	783	738	706	713	730	731	663	649	645	645
NOx	1A4ci										2112	2138	2163	2071	1926	1139	1082	1861	2598	1571	504	1132	832	999	724	777	693	747	757	853	853
NOx	1A4ciii										2112	2138	2163	2071	1926	1139	1082	1861	2598	1571	504	1132	832	999	724	777	693	747	757	853	853
NMVOC	1A2e										484	470	473	147	188	140	156	152	132	139	39	57	146	145	140	148	142	134	107	112	112
NMVOC	1A2f						0	0			433	416	416	17	275	41	37	94	79	62	395	497	576	313	262	364	380	243	532	835	835
NMVOC	1A4bi	9124	9124	9123	8707	8311	7933	7573	7228	6898	2964	2919	2897	5282	2415	5205	5203	5206	4777	4527	4528	4528	4277	4030	4031	4040	4027	3440	3159	3091	3091
NMVOC	3B2	278	287	304	323	416	419	335	314	316	328	328	322	312	322	303	297	309	313	304	299	305	297	306	314	320	324	333	325	315	297
NMVOC	3B4d	620	647	669	701	931	894	678	622	570	607	598	557	504	550	512	510	509	475	444	418	420	411	439	470	490	505	510	506	497	468
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	17912	16778	15521	15305	16920	16651	15876	15132	14423	12996	13056	12887	13689	11631	13371	13286	13207	12864	12711	12671	12763	12989	11367	11191	11337	11251	10291	10136	10262	9914
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	17912	16778	15521	15305	16920	16651	15876	15132	14423	12996	13056	12887	13689	11631	13371	5840	13207	12864	12711	12671	12763	12989	11367	11191	11337	11251	10291	10136	10262	9914
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	17912	16778	15521	15305	16920	16651	15876	15132	14423	12996	13056	12887	13689	11631	13371	13286	13207	12864	12711	12671	12763	12989	11367	11191	11337	11251	10291	10136	10262	9914
SOx	1A2a										9	8	18	12	36	56	56	46	48	40	32	26	8	10	6	12	6	8	5	9	9
SOx	1A2c						0	0			20	21	29	42	43	37	29	67	55	48	40	23	14	15	15	15	6	4	6	6	6
SOx	1A2d										130	64	70	86	86	94	94	94	10	14	6	4		4	4	4	4		5	5	5
SOx	1A2f						0	0			338	252	258	104	205	277	264	371	402	384	3755	4266	5313	2923	2428	3177	3540	1904	4458	8055	8055
SOx	1A2gviii	6614	4409	1570	306	282	321	296	169	320	263	158	176	111	156	144	127	135	70	59	66	38	86	32	28	35	18	31	12	341	341
SOx	1A4bi	444	499	420	304	294	377	464	458	361	115	117	119	565	183	284	283	124	88	84	93	96	79	84	84	99	75	64	59	58	58
SOx	1A4ci										169	171	173	162	150	89	85	146	204	124	40	90	67	80	59	63	55	60	60	68	68
SOx	1A4ciii										169	171	173	162	150	89	85	146	204	124	40	90	67	80	59	63	55	60	60	68	68
SOx	1A5a	10622	5679	1568	1019	1453	585	1001	346	434	140	88	105	5	34	44	23	23
NH3	3B2	2305	2374	2514	2677	3444	3472	2775	2601	2621	2717	2715	2668	2582	2664	2512	2464	2562	2594	2520	2475	2528	2461	2532	2598	2654	2685	2761	2696	2609	2462
NH3	3B4d	1602	1671	1728	1811	2404	2310	1750	1607	1471	1568	1546	1438	1301	1421	1322	1317	1316	1226	1148	1081	1085	1063	1134	1214	1266	1305	1317	1306	1284	1208
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	26183	24524	22801	24344	30197	30826	29054	28146	26590	27449	27857	27229	26727	26824	26241	26120	25394	24844	24210	23524	23638	24343	22714	22456	22935	22432	21838	21457	20886	19667
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	26183	24524	22801	24344	30197	30826	29054	28146	26590	27449	27857	27229	26727	26824	26241	26120	25394	24844	24210	23524	23638	24343	22714	22456	22935	22432	21838	21457	20886	19667
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	26183	24524	22801	24344	30197	30826	29054	28146	26590	27449	27857	27229	26727	26824	26241	26120	25394	24844	24210	23524	23638	24343	22714	22456	22935	22432	21838	21457	20886	19667
CO	1A2e										936	904	915	305	386	287	320	309	270	288	82	122	293	297	286	310	300	277	235	241	241
CO	1A2f						2	1			1096	990	992	113	683	307	292	434	450	419	3905	4477	5540	3045	2532	3330	3688	2017	4690	8367	8367
CO	1A4bi	61041	61086	61023	58164	55516	53064	50731	48429	46163	19816	19521	19374	35584	16226	34862	34832	34761	31878	30213	30237	30242	28558	26927	26931	27018	26896	22985	21119	20669	20669
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	79664	72047	64622	59841	57574	54196	52246	49048	47081	25572	24912	24842	37964	20183	37006	36752	37118	34309	32702	35548	36095	35790	31817	31240	31966	32401	26832	27514	31062	31062
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	79664	72047	64622	59841	57574	54196	52246	49048	47081	25572	24912	24842	37964	20183	37006	36752	37118	34309	32702	35548	36095	35790	31817	31240	31966	32401	26832	27514	31062	31062
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	79664	72047	64622	59841	57574	54196	52246	49048	47081	25572	24912	24842	37964	20183	37006	36752	37118	34309	32702	35548	36095	35790	31817	31240	31966	32401	26832	27514	31062	31062

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A2e	225	228	80	100	75	83	80	69	74	22	33	75	74	70	76	72	65	56	57	57
PM2.5	1A2f	212	214	17	144	43	40	85	76	63	51949	57502	72953	40258	33378	43034	31025	23911	24220	36246	36246
PM2.5	1A2gviii	51	56	34	48	45	38	41	30	25	29	16	37	14	12	15	8	14	6	4655	4655
PM10	1A2e	229	233	81	102	76	84	81	70	75	22	33	76	76	72	77	73	66	57	58	58
TSP	1A2e	240	243	84	105	78	87	84	72	78	23	34	79	79	75	80	76	69	59	61	61
BC	1A2b	7	7	7	5	3	3	3	3	2	1								0	0	0
BC	1A2c	5	7	10	10	9	7	16	13	11	10	5	3	3	3	4	1	1	1	1	1
BC	1A2d	3	2	2	2	4	4	4	2	3	1	1		1	1	1	1		1	1	1
BC	1A2e	66	69	30	37	27	30	28	24	27	9	14	26	25	23	26	23	20	20	19	19
BC	1A2f	54	55	4	37	9	8	33	24	16	3337	3717	4694	2589	2147	2779	6711	1778	8880	25508	25508
BC	1A2gviii	25	28	16	23	22	18	20	17	14	16	9	20	8	7	8	4	7	3	300	300
BC	1A4ai			26	29	69	39	39	62	108	33	33	16	13	16	9	9	10	10	10	10

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A2d										18476	7932	9246	11881	11881	11895	11895	11895	17	24	10	7		7	7	7	7		8	8	8
Pb	1A2e										41545	40876	40599	10289	13674	10266	11411	11398	10004	10025	2415	3463	11379	11375	11332	11381	11362	11337	7972	8640	8640
Pb	1A2f						0	0			81719	69298	69038	13216	50314	36981	35654	35837	46320	48898	550744	609293	773300	426758	353817	456032	516694	264592	632399	1185694	1185694
Pb	1A2gviii	876468	584309	182926	525	483	547	504	287	544	26526	8092	9426	6709	9392	8068	8039	8054	119	101	113	65	146	54	48	59	32	54	22	49337	49337
Pb	1A4bi	410422	410431	410418	391715	373894	356899	340661	325163	310351	133284	131259	130234	237466	108539	234044	234042	234018	214788	203476	203479	203479	192191	182158	182158	184416	180879	154446	141769	138714	138714
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	2900079	1874014	845589	563273	614359	454831	498851	383465	380973	474797	425323	428319	373146	324745	379882	361267	375544	361624	365231	817586	877743	1039216	693046	627104	720316	787330	512135	858784	1458114	1458114
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2900079	1874014	845589	563273	614359	454831	498851	383465	380973	474797	425323	428319	373146	324745	379882	361267	375544	361624	365231	817586	877743	1039216	693046	627104	720316	787330	512135	858784	1458114	1458114
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	2900079	1874014	845589	563273	614359	454831	498851	383465	380973	474797	425323	428319	373146	324745	379882	361267	375544	361624	365231	817586	877743	1039216	693046	627104	720316	787330	512135	858784	1458114	1458114
Cd	1A2e										19974	19660	19518	4909	6535	4908	5454	5453	4789	4791	1147	1643	5452	5452	5437	5452	5451	5449	3815	4140	4140
Cd	1A2f						0	0			17730	17310	17180	179	11254	500	482	495	632	663	7404	8203	10400	5739	4758	6138	6948	3568	8517	15937	15937
Cd	1A4bi	197591	197592	197591	188593	180013	171824	164000	156538	149412	64169	63194	62700	114303	52249	112674	112674	112672	103416	97969	97969	97969	92535	87103	87103	87129	87088	74361	68257	66786	66786
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	239044	225750	208165	195763	189185	175754	168314	158981	151755	169443	167801	166713	152249	120285	137670	135351	139587	132718	128152	127985	128401	133362	128531	124159	121232	127662	111461	106961	113256	113256
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	239044	225750	208165	195763	189185	175754	168314	158981	151755	169443	167801	166713	152249	120285	137670	135351	139587	132718	128152	127985	128401	133362	128531	124159	121232	127662	111461	106961	113256	113256
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	239044	225750	208165	195763	189185	175754	168314	158981	151755	169443	167801	166713	152249	120285	137670	135351	139587	132718	128152	127985	128401	133362	128531	124159	121232	127662	111461	106961	113256	113256
Hg	1A2e										970	924	949	376	462	342	382	362	436	468	108	162	333	529	582	738	885	785	773	772	772
Hg	1A2f						48	17			3650	2818	2823	817	2127	2509	2419	2469	2956	3022	32608	36351	45885	25300	20988	27169	30635	15914	37805	70129	70129
Hg	1A4ai										1670	1692	1770	1755	3315	2586	2445	2400	2663	3991	2397	1998	1624	1143	2571	2382	2787	3004	3191	3176	3176
Hg	1A4ci										3268	3295	3324	2759	2540	1549	1483	2510	3504	2164	781	1622	1318	1538	1176	1246	1218	1288	1318	1461	1461
Hg	1A4ciii										3268	3295	3324	2759	2540	1549	1483	2510	3504	2164	781	1622	1318	1538	1176	1246	1218	1288	1318	1461	1461

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A2e										0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	1A2f						0	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	2	2
DIOX	1A4bi	12	12	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	4	4	4	7	3	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	16	14	13	12	11	11	10	10	9	5	5	5	7	4	7	7	7	7	6	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	5	5	6	6
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	16	14	13	12	11	11	10	10	9	5	5	5	7	4	7	7	7	7	6	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	5	5	6	6
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	16	14	13	12	11	11	10	10	9	5	5	5	7	4	7	7	7	7	6	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	5	5	6	6
HCB	1A2e										7680	7560	7505	1885	2510	1885	2095	2095	1840	1840	440	630	2095	2095	2090	2095	2095	2095	1465	1591	1591
HCB	1A4bi	75995	75995	75995	72535	69235	66085	63075	60205	57465	24680	24305	24115	43960	20095	43335	43335	43335	39775	37680	37680	37680	35590	33501	33501	33512	33495	28600	26252	25686	25686
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	87362	82606	77919	73237	70236	66488	63765	60443	57764	60843	59692	59266	54105	41721	49696	49115	49115	46215	46497	47889	47259	49663	47745	46429	45165	47753	41573	39633	41602	41602
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	87362	82606	77919	73237	70236	66488	63765	60443	57764	60843	59692	59266	54105	41721	49696	49115	49115	46215	46497	47889	47259	49663	47745	46429	45165	47753	41573	39633	41602	41602
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	87362	82606	77919	73237	70236	66488	63765	60443	57764	60843	59692	59266	54105	41721	49696	49115	49115	46215	46497	47889	47259	49663	47745	46429	45165	47753	41573	39633	41602	41602