Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

RecalculationsKCA for CLRTAPInv. comparisonTime seriesTrend graphsAdd Comments


TIME SERIES

Party: AL      Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
NOx1A3bii424036393598295435162562256325822701254028583043309827833287307420662892250939521072278249625943408368221802240 
NOx1A4ai75794932429746638138834530732426627330341926420722721637738339235639439238437220502078 
NMVOC1A3bii246420371996158218391355134213411381121414361581164612861489152311631351112624150163178185243263230230 
NMVOC1A3dii   223333456677888920      63906480 
NMVOC1B2aiv2501301009810711310163766671717482898794927718      43004355 
SOx1A1b38808249081752918404180711794314740100491340498257422777996791019611952128391218814289119092766      1407014680 
SOx1A2gvii44334333333345654333      71607160 
SOx1A2gviii15948664133082349151013439855435539814917010089601472248430073235440656667176717685611435312716750750 
SOx1A3dii   335656810111113131516161724      10001000 
SOx1A4ai7730776842745148518251655166464551505605504752605912736660784044769354370857196744367507470744072757065330278 
SOx1A4bi142125108928782777267262297334374399864175371153865760661562877285015831834216312301240 
NH33B4gi85459771438572612586580221948657854666264784484578111631488193522352176220822082010221323002300 
NH33Da1381037252945360135073422328532672333238224622899307430082894297924322511249631113026338233823204347134711010 
NH35A3132343537394143464952545761656973788284105105113920120130   
NH3NATIONALTOTAL28734296162643528900342183473232269305652945228318285472879528459283112731827284255342442423708239952392924463238652508124558246554846145737 
CO11B20811128523926943443998224523458488482040575973624317306801  610320568324295      1434014340 
CO1A3bii184791527814973118631379510163100631005410357910210771118541234796451116911419872410131844518210491134143012921697183410801110 
CO1A3dii   659119111418202123242628293163      2020020480 

PM (Unit = Mg)
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
PM2.511B10854041931688362  324603023228         
PM1011B12064492141875402  360673359254      5050 
PM101A1b342355442465540578553647544148      750790 

HM (Unit = g)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
Pb1A2gviii2088000946000513000386000272000249000197000134000127000670006700071000600004200020000510005700098000114000114000         
Pb1A3bi19210000286970003047800041423000423340004419100046539000489410005207900048417000541570006087500067478000589120008520500046540000801000635000669000991000         
Pb1A3bii35182000289540002834300022355000259130001912000018905000188660001939400016877000201190002224600023242000177930002054000010643000138000156000129000          
Pb1A4ai44900060300017100013200026700019900020400018000013900011500010100010200011100015300058000620006600069000122000124000         
Pb1A4bi480000412000345000277000257000237000218000198000178000180000185000190000196000301000402000382000396000355000333000338000         
Pb2C13250003900018000570006500068000750007500078000156000182000208000234000260000286000351000338000416000598000598000800001210000125000011200001150000114000011400001140000 
Pb2C2960000100000060000014000001360000172000012480001258000121000011250005000004760009120001512000190800014310001986000198600019860001120000         
Pb2C7a2006000816000386000393000258000493000241000 277000218000                   
PbNATIONALTOTAL6190800062520000618410006731900071592000669180006825500070312000741070006777800076125000850580009309300079831000109670000601330003851000380400040210003702000         
Hg1A2gviii2510001270005700045000270003500028000150001400013000140001700015000170001400040000420008600010300097000         
HgNATIONALTOTAL273000143000660005400037000440003700023000230002200024000270002500029000240005500056000101000124000118000         

POP (Unit = mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
HCB1A2gviii6500051000410003500031000300002700023000210001800016000160001500010000300060007000100001200011000         
HCBNATIONALTOTAL2180002110001230009400010700094000890008000068000580005700057000570006100059000620006300062000640003487365000         
PCB1A2gviii44440002030000116000087300064400057100046000033200031500017300016200016700014400080000230003800048000500005200064000         
PCB1A4ai826000105700034100030000050300040100040900036200031200027200024800025400028000036500019500062000187000164000314000319000