Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AL Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A3bii	4240	3639	3598	2954	3516	2562	2563	2582	2701	2540	2858	3043	3098	2783	3287	3074	2066	2892	2509	395	2107	2278	2496	2594	3408	3682
NOx	1A4ai	757	949	324	297	466	381	388	345	307	324	266	273	303	419	264	207	227	216	377	383	392	356	394	392	384	372
NMVOC	1A3bii	2464	2037	1996	1582	1839	1355	1342	1341	1381	1214	1436	1581	1646	1286	1489	1523	1163	1351	1126	24	150	163	178	185	243	263
SOx	1A2b	121	49	23	24	16	30	15		17	13										430	500	520	520	360	330	270
SOx	1A2gviii	15948	6641	3308	2349	1510	1343	985	543	553	98	149	170	100	89	60	1472	2484	3007	3235	4406	5666	7176	7176	8561	14353	12716
SOx	1A4ai	7730	7768	4274	5148	5182	5165	5166	4645	5150	5605	5047	5260	5912	7366	6078	404	4769	3543	7085	7196	7443	6750	7470	7440	7275	7065
SOx	1A4bi	142	125	108	92	87	82	77	72	67	262	297	334	374	3998	6417	5371	1538	657	606	615	628	772	850	1583	1834	2163
NH3	3B4gi	854	597	71	438	572	612	586	580	2219	486	578	546	662	647	844	845	781	1163	1488	1935	2235	2176	2208	2208	2010	2213
NH3	5A	31	32	34	35	37	39	41	43	46	49	52	54	57	61	65	69	73	78	82	84	105	105	113	920	120	130
CO	1A3bii	18479	15278	14973	11863	13795	10163	10063	10054	10357	9102	10771	11854	12347	9645	11169	11419	8724	10131	8445	182	1049	1134	1430	1292	1697	1834

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	11B	1085	404	193	1688	362			32460	3023	228
PM10	11B	1206	449	214	1875	402			36067	3359	254

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A2gviii	2088000	946000	513000	386000	272000	249000	197000	134000	127000	67000	67000	71000	60000	42000	20000	51000	57000	98000	114000	114000
Pb	1A3bi	19210000	28697000	30478000	41423000	42334000	44191000	46539000	48941000	52079000	48417000	54157000	60875000	67478000	58912000	85205000	46540000	801000	635000	669000	991000
Pb	1A3bii	35182000	28954000	28343000	22355000	25913000	19120000	18905000	18866000	19394000	16877000	20119000	22246000	23242000	17793000	20540000	10643000	138000	156000	129000
Pb	1A4ai	449000	603000	171000	132000	267000	199000	204000	180000	139000	115000	101000	102000	111000	153000	58000	62000	66000	69000	122000	124000
Pb	1A4bi	480000	412000	345000	277000	257000	237000	218000	198000	178000	180000	185000	190000	196000	301000	402000	382000	396000	355000	333000	338000
Pb	2C1	325000	39000	18000	57000	65000	68000	75000	75000	78000	156000	182000	208000	234000	260000	286000	351000	338000	416000	598000	598000	80000	1210000	1250000	1120000	1150000	1140000
Pb	2C2	960000	1000000	600000	1400000	1360000	1720000	1248000	1258000	1210000	1125000	500000	476000	912000	1512000	1908000	1431000	1986000	1986000	1986000	1120000
Pb	2C7a	2006000	816000	386000	393000	258000	493000	241000		277000	218000
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	61908000	62520000	61841000	67319000	71592000	66918000	68255000	70312000	74107000	67778000	76125000	85058000	93093000	79831000	109670000	60133000	3851000	3804000	4021000	3702000
Hg	1A2gviii	251000	127000	57000	45000	27000	35000	28000	15000	14000	13000	14000	17000	15000	17000	14000	40000	42000	86000	103000	97000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	273000	143000	66000	54000	37000	44000	37000	23000	23000	22000	24000	27000	25000	29000	24000	55000	56000	101000	124000	118000

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
HCB	1A2gviii	65000	51000	41000	35000	31000	30000	27000	23000	21000	18000	16000	16000	15000	10000	3000	6000	7000	10000	12000	11000
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	218000	211000	123000	94000	107000	94000	89000	80000	68000	58000	57000	57000	57000	61000	59000	62000	63000	62000	64000	3487365000
PCB	1A2gviii	4444000	2030000	1160000	873000	644000	571000	460000	332000	315000	173000	162000	167000	144000	80000	23000	38000	48000	50000	52000	64000
PCB	1A4ai	826000	1057000	341000	300000	503000	401000	409000	362000	312000	272000	248000	254000	280000	365000	195000	62000	187000	164000	314000	319000