Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: UA

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NOx	2G													6074	11409	15816	16541	4444	2167	19	13
NMVOC	1A1c													116	627	708	2756	3407	25843	20616	668
NMVOC	1A4bi													3024	5613	21	684	1879	12782	4194	4066
NMVOC	1B2ai													15349	24084	12348	37513	32578	28908	20	806
NMVOC	2G													16984	22404	22513	22618	7712	4742	46	4
NH3	1A4bi													545			5	9204	6140	34	7438
NH3	2A7d													1		5	10930	2	2	4	10
NH3	4D1a													50	89	1072	1337		22	14270	15451
NH3	7A													128	84	1	1103	1	10332
CO	1A3ai(i)													101854	107885	1765	344799			757	125
CO	1A3ai(ii)													216208	250995	71	141356			1120	806

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
PM2.5	1A1c			0		2270	10792
PM2.5	1A3bi			2		174	400
PM2.5	2C5e			0		2045	14155
PM2.5	2G			0		4139	4548
PM10	1A1a			16		54828	74689
PM10	2C5e			3		10578	9499
PM10	2G			81		15804	11137
TSP	1A1c			30134	41085	33291	36194	28963919	21288	30385	22559
TSP	1A2fi			40170	45454	49438	49883	46017519	76736	10646	7293
TSP	1A3bi			9039	10764	9742	7837	8751961	23400	10071	14809
TSP	1A3c			2831	3666	4106	4429	7728153	5614	23048	17887
TSP	1A4ai			79171	54544	8706	8179	14728611	13486	37490	4375
TSP	1A4bi			108503	93484	96588	70353	64513181	61347	62907	16353
TSP	2A7d			36916	29739	9759	13711	20762095	11373	1455	2288
TSP	2C5e			143855	146911	134423	199291	200519120	192209	30456	12698
TSP	2G			6781	17123	29605	29920	20190058	16176	29	9

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Pb	1A2fi													3315690	1328830	3928000	5554828	4921340	26938632	2830053	2397053
Pb	1A4ai													18692900	5843149	814000	444500	711721	404821	269021	208217
Pb	2C5e													23985820	24086190	77544000	181859000	206369330	196585800	23008013	15536003
Pb	2G													33400	13027780	16961000	9944212	297704	273349
Cd	1A1a													14100	26800000	505000	230032	437084	227476	235120	224000
Cd	1A2fi													24100	82694	739000	249666	389071	313055	59000	132000
Cd	1A3bi													1202531	691255		3402460	107604	3493900	3550749	2027617
Cd	2C5e													43383		887000	1629000	3011000	3146000	132000	189000
Cd	2G													1901		180000	152037	124000	560358
Cd	6Cb													628000	538000	496000	656000	839000	889000	136000	2000
Cd	7A															105000	126000	4000	244
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL												10451000	2012070	28181800	3090000	6842808	5096043	8951515	8322590	4439302
Hg	1A1a													3073489	28800000	3616000	3645306	4060872	4572621	3975100	3950200
Hg	1A1c													402840	177170	661000	455950		289081	212700	240700
Hg	1A2fi													16690	105201	275000	412640	418489	520570	17000	13000
Hg	1A3bi													3000		600000	2030	1000	100	19000
Hg	1A3c													400000		90000	97200	57000	12000	85000	18000
Hg	1A4ai													291000	241739	59000	125500	111507	84101	70030	11007
Hg	1A4bi													1215773	449270	500000	342453	405081	227916	201980	210594
Hg	2C5e													9000	150002		10000	714000	832000	78000	98000
Hg	2G													6700		58000	54076	9003200	10058
Hg	6Cb													459000	390000	557000	697000	853000	944000	99000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL												25051000	5904895	30313383	6592000	5961158	15650372	7557548	6791125	5621682