Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: SK      Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	136000			102000		93000	89000	81000	78000	72000	66136	69335	68957	69478	71018	73154	70444	67217	67362	64301	62401	68257	61181
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	65000	57900	48200	42300	39400	40400	38600	36700	32600	30600	32146	32259	32925	31843	29003	28641	27078	26994	25223	25146	24921	24184	25185

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
PM10	1A2fi	2889	2574	2253	2011	626	1053	1051	991	748	601	475	429	407
TSP	1A3dii	182	191	167	167	187	205	172	1952	178	170	257	206	215

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A1a											588200	495880	414466	410014	403450	797040	757672	464284	663400	1024254	1900564	2122853	2345310
Pb	1A2a											34717080	32520579	29364067	29046279	29994138	28056795	30163019	27041901	26101900	13210217	16951811	19926860	21436601
Pb	1A2b											4200	2955107	2323300	2547274	5404489	7457577	9803380	10853800	11699800	9136797	14985378	15865767	12954287
Pb	6Cb											23184742	5139758	2463629	2389485	2456747	3497355	3323810	2867098	2236278	933532	3295796	1194015	2262456
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	99040000		96640000		79370000	79100000	78500000	77360000	73680000	62330000	88784251	69867246	65198357	64201308	69976808	72690426	73689458	62475956	63284019	42577829	59284222	59161125	58281019
Cd	1A2b											6000	43287	32000	58174	101030	156119	190335	275390	238300	145630	193085	208542	143864
Cd	1A2fi											6247922	6263799	4098171	4814832	5723630	4979870	4743733	119833	247050	121382	127700	110102	132972
Cd	6Cb											1987264	440551	211168	204813	210578	299773	284898	245751	191681	80017	282497	102344	193925
Cd	FUTOTAL											9055226	7362900	5032408	5805487	6822864	6243393	6071299	1442151	1401095	1095456	1449309	1275960	1310471
Cd	GRIDTOTAL											9055226	7362900	5032408	5805487	6822864	6243393	6071299	1442151	1401095	1095456	1449309	1275960	1310471
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	9710000		10830000		6630000	10370000	9030000	10070000	7590000	6530000	9055226	7362900	5032408	5805487	6822864	6243393	6071299	1442151	1401095	1095456	1449309	1275960	1310471
Hg	1A2a											3324000	2557391	2001748	1471647	1862892	1611883	2157029	1658379	1862700	290552	353483	334514	352967
Hg	1A2b											71000	52890	11524	216292	12064	730	849	1190	1100	604	798	861	598
Hg	1A2fi											272600	242189	231341	240280	219981	215268	190359	160043	242900	148846	142527	135896	141167
Hg	2B5a											30000	369000	361000	382000	448000	477000	384000	173733	170000	178044	173477	173212	163100
Hg	6Cb											1987264	440551	211168	204813	210578	299773	284898	245751	191681	80017	282497	102344	193925
Hg	FUTOTAL											6146924	3969794	3177247	2881202	3167045	3044231	3462407	2637524	2828870	1105019	1399346	1209002	1293480
Hg	GRIDTOTAL											6146924	3969794	3177247	2881202	3167045	3044231	3462407	2637524	2828870	1105019	1399346	1209002	1293480
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	12760000		6150000		3870000	4310000	3380000	3610000	3920000	3620000	6146924	3969794	3177247	2881202	3167045	3044231	3462407	2637524	2828870	1105019	1399346	1209002	1293480

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
DIOX	1A1c											4791	4793	5100	5338	5332	5220	5246	5220	4800	3000	6000	4560	4410
HCB	1A2a											115000	117000	123000	119000	117000	112000	114000	107000	98000	62000	79000	93000	113000