Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SK

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


PM (Unit = Mg)
  2000200120022003200420052006200720082009
PM101A2fi288925742253201162615491343127610021128
TSP1A3dii1821911671671872051721952178170

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb1A2b          400029550002323000254700054040007458000980300010854000117000009136797
Cd1A2b          6000430003200058000101000156000190000275000238000145630
Cd1A2fi          6247900626400040980004815000572360049800004744000119833249530121382
Cd6Cb          83500067700013650001913000903000122100010920007380001485000594000
CdFUTOTAL          7758893760333461851547515435751476271676746881864193814927017961630897
CdGRIDTOTAL          7758893760333461851547515435751476271676746881864193814927017961630897
CdNATIONALTOTAL9440000 10830000 66300009980000902000010170000777000066400007758893760333461851547515435751476271676746881864193814927017961630897
Hg1A2a          332400025570002002000147200018630001612000215700016580001863000290552
Hg1A2b          710005300012000216000120001000100010001000604
Hg2B5a          30000369000361000382000448000477000384000174000170000178044
Hg6Cb          83500067700013650001913000903000122100010920007380001485000594000
Hg6Cc          1290000236000281000292000331000329000342000324000283000320400
HgNATIONALTOTAL12470000 6150000 3870000393000033800003720000410000037300005910098420631743244304588894385527139637854268639312852341221691620079