Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SI

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NMVOC	1A4bi	9845	10362	9899	9567	9171	9039	9008	8863	8788	8827	8717	8679	8641	8628	8571	8494	8427	8367	8395	8181
SOx	2A1	267	237	219	164	217	231	248	251	261	264	961	946	1025	1830	914	1081	667	30	50	6
NH3	4D1a	1451	1292	2026	1766	1809	1749	1715	1851	1913	1911	1934	1956	1912	1946	1761	1719	1783	1758	1543	1699
CO	1A4bi	87463	92247	87801	84152	80324	78783	77985	76406	75611	75771	74991	74534	74272	74226	73734	73199	72777	72598	72680	70864

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
PM2.5	2C3	1400	1358	855	932	824	740	1175	1023	11	8
PM10	2C3	3199	3104	1953	2131	1883	1690	2687	2338	26	19
TSP	2C3	3999	3881	2442	2663	2354	2113	3359	2923	32	24

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Pb	1A2fi	14084434	3419904	2522667	2941382	2442973	1636091	1451827	1241381	1322687	934669	694759	155183	49480	34180	28346	30553	30938	42578	41770	20231
Pb	1A3bi	320174154	304226417	327722834	356219233	365964860	237082916	92445078	82846897	64570159	54663463	49716249	44236219	2647838	2739797	2609199	2704713	3155869	3071651	3236834	3250000
Pb	1A3bii			11124535	12623709	11483430	6783161	2458917	2019264	1338372	1083619	1112913	774611	110173	117693	108868	126477	95595	102328	122034
Pb	2A7d	812005	850548	911776	972919	1041894	1114903	1192841	1272866	1333360	1667212	1845901	1959748	1885070	268808	280908	234702	263682	247373	247362	244653
Pb	2C1	3160255	1832155	1951325	1951325	2156955	2073900	1678050	1945010	1983032	2021055	2323765	2312160	2405790	2707145	2854700	3028630	3274605	3344480	3382390	2289125
Pb	2C5a	717400	518650	557750	557750	293250	723200	857650	855400	855400	1038100	1199250	1095800	1186650	1081450	1070950	878585	1094800	1173435	1154259	842175
Pb	2C5b	6580950	5680050	5357400	5357400	4781100	5015700	4635600	2202450	2145450	2157600	2340900	2595150	2461500	2874150	3105000	3105000	3480300	3800730	4481586	3903330
Pb	2C5d	526400	467000	141000	141000	137000	126600	129200	2523000	2641800	2367800	2762200	2691200	1895000	2312600	2464000	2454392	3005000	2653000	2314461	2547560
Cd	1A2b	26048	23221	20822	20319	20730	4667	115	4860	4893	4851	4664	4813	4811	3432	3084	3223	4577	3606	2946	2125
Cd	1A3bi	14420	13306	14701	18491	21529	24368	27714	29820	34650	34461	36870	38521	40467	42279	42772	51064	54275	60500	79561	165000
Cd	1A4ai	30706	33489	35138	56958	29395	29921	47521	48621	31990	34597	34352	16243	10414	4728	292
Cd	2A1	35643	31573	29157	21871	28991	30769	33038	33448	34861	35160	37140	38286	33635	34153	35902	36868	38874	39129	44990	44990
Cd	2C1	18962	10993	11708	11708	12942	12443	10068	11670	11898	12126	13943	13873	14435	16243	17128	18172	19648	20067	20294	13735
Cd	2C5a	28696	20746	22310	22310	11730	28928	34306	34216	34216	41524	47970	43832	47466	43258	42838	35143	43792	46937	46170	33687
Hg	1A4bi	157666	167189	157973	151377	144582	141373	142157	138645	136832	137218	135829	134979	134462	134270	131647	131466	130702	131210	131548	129576
Hg	2A1	57919	51306	47381	35541	47110	49999	53687	54353	56649	57135	60352	62215	54657	55499	58342	59910	63171	63584	73109	73109
Hg	2C1	25282	14657	15611	15611	17256	16591	13424	15560	15864	16168	18590	18497	19246	21657	22838	24229	26197	26756	27059	18313
Hg	2C5a	78914	57052	61352	61352	32258	79552	94342	94094	94094	114191	131918	120538	130532	118960	117804	96644	120428	129078	126969	92639
Hg	2C5d	19740	17512	5288	5288	5138	4748	4845	94612	99068	88792	103582	100920	71062	86722	92400	92040	112688	99488	86792	95534
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	1170220	1051835	1065728	1036777	977061	905271	901641	1003307	1002235	924315	929093	833545	838047	820583	814561	788866	802056	844770	898605	815747
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1170220	1051835	1065728	1036777	977061	905271	901641	1003307	1002235	924315	929093	833545	838047	820583	814561	788866	802056	844770	898605	815747
Hg	UNFCCCTOTAL	1170220	1051835	1065728	1036777	977061	905271	901641	1003307	1002235	924315	929093	833545	838047	820583	814561	788866	802056	844770

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
DIOX	1A1a	643	569	558	559	539	546	568	560	570	504	511	553	575	546	566	545	577	580	739	620
DIOX	1A4bi	8692	9635	8713	8006	7322	6974	7007	6660	6473	6502	6384	6296	6251	6239	6026	5982	5910	5898	5922	5830
DIOX	2C1	1264	733	781	781	863	830	671	778	793	808	930	925	962	830	1142	1211	1310	1338	1353	916
DIOX	2C5a	287	207	223	223	117	289	343	342	342	415	480	438	475	289	428	351	438	469	462	337
HCB	1A3bi	50140	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	124728	275308
HCB	2A1	9802	8683	8018	6015	7972	8461	9085	9198	9587	9669	10213	10529	9250	9392	9873	10139	10690	10760	12372	12372
HCB	GRIDTOTAL	46552468	40646320	37495307	37488449	37478498	37393663	36172199	37545102	37250070	37827069	38180433	38130787	337326	340134	336338	342629	344315	356265	345336	514447
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	46552468	40646320	37495307	37488449	37478498	37393663	36172199	37545102	37250070	37827069	38180433	38130787	337326	340134	336338	342629	344315	356265	345336	514447
HCB	UNFCCCTOTAL	46552468	40646320	37495307	37488449	37478498	37393663	36172199	37545102	37250070	37827069	38180433	38130787	337326	340134	336338	342629	344315	356265