Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SI

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2007

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2007

PMs:

2000 – 2007

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
NH3NATIONALTOTAL241872351123477231312227721925220311984420082202542010619755199611916917111181261860318507

HM (Unit = g)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
Pb1A3bi312204000         2923600012774000377400036870003309000326200028180002752000
Pb2A7d812005         184590119597481885070268808804606307124263682247373
Pb2C5a717400               10948001173435
Pb2C5d526400               30050002653000
Cd1A4ai30706         3435216243104144728292   
Hg6Cb119         126426658286353442225947226200
HgGRIDTOTAL          105770310824611075598107508411090161063037  
HgNATIONALTOTAL121169910830001097000107000010190001008000101700010970001080000101100010577031082461107559810750841109016106303711386521169380
HgSNAPTOTAL          105770310824611075598107508411090161063037  

POP (Unit = mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
HCBGRIDTOTAL          3814991538137121343315344874316071299894  
HCBNATIONALTOTAL466421424066400037519000377220003752400037437000362040003758300037257000377860003814991538137121343315344874316071299894301658363867
HCBSNAPTOTAL          3814991538137121343315344874316071299894