Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SE

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	4969	4050	3345	4578	5027	5722	5819	6098	6713	7627	8191	8196	6734	6649	7697	8580	8802	9649	10522	8983	9131
NOx	1A4bi	9222	9328	8948	8314	8236	7416	7410	6765	6404	6107	6049	5474	5254	5391	5087	4722	4041	3941	3884	4313	5143
NMVOC	1A4bi	10469	10984	11372	12126	11399	11928	11847	10895	9588	9710	9550	9238	9093	10378	9114	9546	8190	8566	9171	10405	12434
SOx	1A4bi	7444	7425	6877	3947	4168	3748	2868	2565	2462	2182	1874	1579	1447	1395	1299	1040	815	715	661	666	788
SOx	FUTOTAL	105042	101286	94166	82220	80060	68835	66824	59661	56265	46568	41584	40602	40403	41313	36870	35866	35617	32622	30457	29603	34472
SOx	GRIDTOTAL	105042	101286	94166	82220	80060	68835	66824	59661	56265	46568	41584	40602	40403	41313	36870	35866	35617	32622	30457	29603	34472
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	105042	101286	94166	82220	80060	68835	66824	59661	56265	46568	41584	40602	40403	41313	36870	35866	35617	32622	30457	29603	34472
SOx	UNFCCCTOTAL	105163	101401	94292	82322	80166	68939	66928	59775	56379	46686	41688	40698	40500	41409	36983	35973	35712	32711	30549	29676	34529
NH3	4B1b	23750	23750	23750	27350	27350	34090	15250	15190	15000	14210	14080	12630	12460	12990	13250	13220	13170	12510	13270	13000	13321
NH3	4B6	3000	3000	3000	3000	3000	3050	3000	3000	3070	3230	3230	3140	3140	3010	3000	3270	3270	3270	3140	2860	3661
CO	1A1a	8191	9694	9723	12735	15200	17402	23949	19609	20543	21565	20825	25423	26138	28267	29039	32056	32789	33055	36994	39335	45208
CO	1A3bi	860554	896525	828851	714567	744499	674183	652130	578044	540389	488001	431426	393690	362282	322254	285017	257750	236815	218087	204102	190504	174044
CO	1A4bi	141891	148868	154006	160647	151732	159467	157759	145825	128610	130600	129175	124848	123747	139955	125492	130662	114555	117541	125366	142423	170209
CO	FUTOTAL	1277944	1329977	1270415	1160488	1186613	1125499	1101461	1007875	944191	889677	822860	783019	747667	727544	676599	660538	626454	617209	606846	612204	639339
CO	GRIDTOTAL	1277944	1329977	1270415	1160488	1186613	1125499	1101461	1007875	944191	889677	822860	783019	747667	727544	676599	660538	626454	617209	606846	612204	639339
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	1277944	1329977	1270415	1160488	1186613	1125499	1101461	1007875	944191	889677	822860	783019	747667	727544	676599	660538	626454	617209	606846	612204	639339
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	1279796	1331729	1272343	1162051	1188234	1126904	1102794	1009295	945422	891133	824132	784398	749014	728716	677682	661464	627125	617830	607177	612473	639646

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A2d	893050	878212	926549	991132	1179753	1110646	1005131	1074389	978625	834409	928749	1101702	988932	955026	961618	887264	916424	841224	845614	820636	861963
Pb	1A2fi	873300	834468	796879	833984	923912	1007753	1024735	985078	977858	924502	774014	782414	761218	709427	723103	693207	805425	727265	675354	592068	677641
Pb	1A3bi	245086174	226761404	207597432	85211156	10388162	3771932	3687361	3647864	3637685	3653482	3631183	3649709	3715380	3714304	3706937	3589597	3541947	3471788	3371	3215845	3063863
Pb	1A3bii	13163341	12705625	11847554	4880809	587576	213078	202579	197740	184998	173763	160131	147990	138046	122505	107010	105015	95902	88674	81	75192	68483
Pb	1A3bvi	11865350	11891944	11936441	11676452	11842701	12010947	12065171	12090658	12233123	10839018	9256386	7615360	6048032	4289526	2494680	670242	697334	722538	725997	729224	743016
Pb	1A4bi	831034	861930	849242	870259	862246	865603	861424	800147	730851	719011	715514	669997	678823	739425	701599	713362	643828	659523	677083	761408	909231
Pb	2A7d	1455000	1547403	1347252	1286125	1026300	1576600	1486700	1686350	1642400	2764600	2891560	759840	741120	969655	896060	608868	45181	84220	39870	34720	29590
Pb	2C1	22467914	20307738	16699739	9181253	7134511	4243020	2369963	2189419	2428538	1337962	1202428	765956	637115	468316	466949	680848	879522	773367	820440	401791	558787
Cd	1A4bi	133805	138841	141556	146071	140450	145846	146923	137084	123615	124876	125020	119437	123289	136334	129868	135852	123871	128580	132891	150364	179651
Cd	2C5e	1337210	833060	750643	492530	183260	173560	152570	179895	121530	69325	60610	142860	60670	56469	68450	71551	92049	108433	51157	51780	27839
Cd	FUTOTAL	2271899	1726757	1358492	1068344	751903	728881	697540	692489	611763	526626	509830	591619	512527	508687	527568	529336	545186	554243	505552	536181	582743
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	2271899	1726757	1358492	1068344	751903	728881	697540	692489	611763	526626	509830	591619	512527	508687	527568	529336	545186	554243	505552	536181	582743
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2271899	1726757	1358492	1068344	751903	728881	697540	692489	611763	526626	509830	591619	512527	508687	527568	529336	545186	554243	505552	536181	582743
Hg	1A4bi	27270	27928	28299	28978	28019	28891	29117	26926	24612	24435	24474	22920	23280	25186	23942	24239	21705	22208	22741	25508	30459
Hg	FUTOTAL	1582479	1280923	1214631	1083246	1104474	1042349	1086951	930143	907356	886105	728224	613401	633222	722058	740214	690337	551776	585336	534168	586033	554025
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	1582479	1280923	1214631	1083246	1104474	1042349	1086951	930143	907356	886105	728224	613401	633222	722058	740214	690337	551776	585336	534168	586033	554025
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1582479	1280923	1214631	1083246	1104474	1042349	1086951	930143	907356	886105	728224	613401	633222	722058	740214	690337	551776	585336	534168	586033	554025

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	1A4bi	2731	2854	2942	3052	2907	3052	3082	2891	2582	2646	2652	2569	2682	3004	2866	3058	2814	2946	3059	3477	4156
DIOX	2C1	25935	21176	20148	19850	18606	13759	9118	7966	8197	8056	7933	4162	5407	3378	5348	5529	3425	2558	2987	915	2607