Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SE

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	4969	4050	3345	4578	5027	5722	5819	6098	6713	7627	8191	8196	6734	6649	7697	8580	8802	9649	10522	8916
NOx	1A3biii	58807	57404	55517	54017	53147	54207	50886	50481	48447	49809	50586	47932	47669	46576	45827	45309	44885	45253	41310	37829
NMVOC	1A3dii	10497	10221	9973	9704	9456	9225	8978	8761	8539	8312	8074	7833	7590	7377	7119	7112	7095	7080	7076	7107
NMVOC	FUTOTAL	177704	141033	134364	123446	124227	118631	113594	105953	97916	93213	87574	79116	76565	71643	68607	65935	61728	59471	55771	54581
NH3	4B1b	23750	23750	23750	27350	27350	34090	15250	15190	15000	14210	14080	12630	12460	12990	13250	13220	13170	12510	13270	13000
NH3	4B6	3000	3000	3000	3000	3000	3050	3000	3000	3070	3230	3230	3140	3140	3010	3000	3270	3270	3270	3140	2860
CO	1A1a	8191	9693	9722	12735	15200	17402	23944	19602	20540	21565	20823	25421	26138	28267	29039	32056	32787	33055	36994	39335

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Pb	1A2d	893050	878212	926549	991132	1179753	1110646	1005131	1074389	978625	834409	928749	1101702	988932	955026	961618	887264	916424	841224	845614	820636
Pb	1A2fi	873300	834468	796879	833984	923912	1007753	1024735	985078	977858	924502	774014	782414	761218	709427	723103	693207	805425	727265	663137	585750
Pb	1A3bi	246356065	228091826	209494123	86191622	10515456	3826229	3743866	3716682	3708306	3729717	3707118	3720329	3805248	3800445	3789120	3760389	3617018	3496	9824	9860
Pb	1A3bii	17998682	17407226	15991090	6533524	785327	283213	267916	260203	241354	223930	204425	185903	171621	150672	130401	120390	107702	98	264	267
Pb	1A3bvi	11500700	11535702	11590334	11338201	11495485	11654644	11706949	11731478	11865606	10509908	8974838	7383801	5863871	4158856	2417499	645965	671450	695929	700791	703781
Pb	2A7d	1455000	1547403	1347252	1286125	1026300	1576600	1486700	1686350	1642400	2764600	2891560	759840	741120	969655	896060	608868	45181	84220	39870	34720
Pb	2C1	22467914	20307738	16699739	9181253	7134511	4243020	2369963	2189419	2428538	1337962	1202428	765956	637115	468316	466949	680848	879522	773367	820396	403225
Pb	FUTOTAL	278170661	259127663	239036584	104921099	22916147	15821315	15772577	15769608	15879093	14530197	12952700	11356690	9910740	8186024	6411795	4603222	4471232	725023	735514	740930
Cd	1A3di(i)	7879	9582	10862	10954	12986	12860	13468	15783	18213	18312	18078	17823	15583	21189	25411	25915	28014	29027	27759	29076
Cd	2C5e	1337210	833060	750643	492530	183260	173560	152570	179895	121530	69325	60610	142860	60670	56469	68450	71551	92049	108433	51157	51780
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	2271860	1726719	1358455	1068308	751866	728842	697501	692450	611724	526585	509788	591577	512484	508644	527525	529292	545138	554196	504166	523756
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2271860	1726719	1358455	1068308	751866	728842	697501	692450	611724	526585	509788	591577	512484	508644	527525	529292	545138	554196	504166	523756
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	1582478	1280922	1214630	1083246	1104473	1042348	1086950	930143	907356	886104	728223	613130	633222	722058	740213	690393	551805	585336	534287	584447
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1582478	1280922	1214630	1083246	1104473	1042348	1086950	930143	907356	886104	728223	613130	633222	722058	740213	690393	551805	585336	534287	584447