Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: SE

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2008
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2008
PMs:	2000 – 2008

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
NOx	1A3di(i)	46304	55941	63500	63976	75720	74855	78615	92142	105823	104837	100940	98034	85156	115440	137756	136529	147369	150608	143768
NOx	1A4bi	9222	9328	8948	8314	8236	7416	7410	6765	6404	6107	6049	5474	5254	5391	5087	4722	4041	4396	4055
NH3	4B1b	23750	23750	23750	27350	27350	34090	15250	15190	15000	14210	14080	12630	12460	12990	13250	13220	13170	12510	13270
CO	1A1a	8191	9693	9722	12735	15200	17402	23944	19602	20540	21565	20823	25421	26138	28267	29039	32056	32787	33055	36994
CO	1A3dii	23877	23808	23856	23826	23874	23991	24043	24193	24337	24465	24548	24610	24666	24827	24820	24788	24733	24685	23657
CO	1A4bii	23047	23357	23659	23917	24194	24502	24915	25335	25814	26342	26806	27232	27584	27873	28176	28333	28436	28548	28244

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Pb	1A2d	893050	878212	926549	991132	1179753	1110646	1005131	1074389	978625	834409	928749	1101702	988932	955026	961618	887264	916424	841224	845614
Pb	1A2fi	873300	834468	796879	833984	923912	1007753	1024735	985078	977858	924502	774014	811520	765092	735267	749304	716345	829701	752970	670285
Pb	1A3bi	246356000	228091800	209494100	86191620	10515450	3826228	3743866	3716682	3708306	3729716	3707117	3720329	3805247	3800444	3789119	3760388	3617016	3495	9832
Pb	1A3bii	17998680	17407220	15991080	6533524	785326	283213	267916	260202	241353	223930	204425	185902	171620	150671	130401	120389	107702	97	263
Pb	1A3bvi	11500700	11535702	11590334	11338201	11495485	11654644	11706949	11731478	11865606	10509908	8974838	7383801	5863871	4158856	2417499	650609	653951	674643	670129
Pb	1A3di(i)	105120	124554	141987	142610	167968	165168	174966	205177	236739	231623	225094	219629	193642	260477	306841	313288	336877	347166	329868
Pb	1A4bi	831034	861930	849242	870259	862246	865603	861424	800147	730851	719011	715514	669997	678823	739425	701599	713362	643828	742666	690706
Pb	2A7d	1455000	1547403	1347252	1286125	1026300	1576600	1486700	1686350	1642400	2764600	2891560	759840	741120	969655	896060	608868	45181	84220	39870
Pb	2C1	22467914	20307738	16699739	9181253	7134511	4243020	2369963	2189419	2428538	1337962	1202428	765956	637115	468316	466949	680848	872522	772367	820396
Cd	1A3di(i)	7878	9581	10861	10953	12985	12859	13467	15781	18212	18311	18077	17822	15581	21188	25411	25914	28013	29026	27759
Cd	2C5e	1337210	833060	750643	492530	183260	173560	152570	179895	121530	69325	60610	142140	60670	55749	68450	71551	92049	108433	50917
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	2271858	1726717	1358453	1068307	751866	728841	697499	692449	611723	526583	509787	590856	512483	507923	527523	529329	544848	565966	501592
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2271858	1726717	1358453	1068307	751866	728841	697499	692449	611723	526583	509787	590856	512483	507923	527523	529329	544848	565966	501592
Cd	SNAPTOTAL	2271858	1726717	1358453	1068307	751866	728841	697499	692449	611723	526583	509787	590856	512483	507923	527523	529329	544848	565966	501592
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	1582477	1280921	1214629	1083244	1104473	1042347	1086948	930140	907354	886102	728222	613128	633220	722056	740212	690413	551803	592887	540428
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1582477	1280921	1214629	1083244	1104473	1042347	1086948	930140	907354	886102	728222	613128	633220	722056	740212	690413	551803	592887	540428
Hg	SNAPTOTAL	1582477	1280921	1214629	1083244	1104473	1042347	1086948	930140	907354	886102	728222	613128	633220	722056	740212	690413	551803	592887	540428

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
HCB	1A3di(i)	91220	109938	124866	125746	148741	146944	154493	181088	208964	208162	204423	200845	176089	238586	284451	290199	313164	323912	309121