Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RU

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2007
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2007
PMs:	2000 – 2007

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
PM2.5	1A1a			166	163100	183300	167500	189700	87300
PM2.5	1A2a			41	39000	43800	40000	45300
PM2.5	1A2b			31	29000	32600	29800	34600
PM2.5	1A3b			21	22000	24700	22600	15100	15600
PM2.5	1B2			24	22400	25200	23000	26600	30200
PM2.5	2A			30	28000	31500	28800	32900	59500
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL			376	341100	383300	350200	408800	347900
PM10	1A1a			249	280600	315300	288000	284500	131000
PM10	1A2a			61	67000	75300	68800	67900
PM10	1A2b			47	52000	58400	53400	52000
PM10	1A3b			31	32000	36000	32900	22600	23300
PM10	1B2			36	40000	44900	41000	40000	45300
PM10	2A			44	49000	55000	50200	49300	89300
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL			561	575600	646700	590800	613000	521800
TSP	1A1a			415	443700	498600	455500	474200	218300
TSP	1A2a			102	106000	119100	108800	113200
TSP	1A2b			78	81000	91000	83200	86600
TSP	1A3b			52	54000	60700	55500	37700	38900
TSP	1B2			60	62400	70100	64000	66600	75500
TSP	2A			74	77000	86500	79000	82200	148800