Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RS

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NMVOC	11B											2780	161	339	339	491	18	18	18	7756	423	176
CO	11B											30980	1709	3779	3779	5468	203	203	203	86430	4719	1962

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
PM10	4D1a	7970	7973	7967	7967	7980	7975	7975	7975	7883	7951	7943

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A4bi											2414475	1504823	2298467	2298467	2259116	2862354	2862354	2862354	3015497	1982956	4649763
Pb	2C1											2505959	2142274	2127891	2127891	2559981	8500466	8500466	8500466	9922574	6679146	7749368
Pb	2C5a											7714600	5499000	6043900	6043900	2352800	5198700	5198700	5198700	5164700	4591900	3717600
Cd	1A3bi											289140	9870	10260	10260	11040	12690	12690	12690	14980	17430	17552
Cd	1A3biii											284720	10030	10550	10550	11330	13310	13310	13310	14810	15120	15982
Cd	2C5a											675400	484800	526100	526100	203600	444000	444000	444000	437300	396700	321000
Hg	1A1a											785400	823900	796800	796800	884200	913900	913900	913900	973465	1030441	986050
Hg	2C1											937	795	793	793	959	55557	55557	55557	58246	35592	40039

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
HCB	2C3											2470000	2630000	2435000	2435000	3015000	1345000	1345000	1345000	51490000	45065000	69335000
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL											2563417	2703956	2525884	2525884	3114535	1505526	1505526	1505526	51661304	45211588	69504817