Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: PT      Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
NOx1A1a6648370251810817265568176774446078659161630666670455893538186241447060461785415142247396282945825967140671719919594
NOx1A3ai(ii)55215024531051555114527252645331584665256846671963697028781779178326862290248369927395639642
NOx1A3bi3808342503483944740946323456154480143649442054345344645421944264241656400523713436280345433454734780339332987529597
NMVOC11C458348472309486148500330514919472854474300475726476709478875480247481545482793484075485414486807487896489122490887492602494280495744497479
NMVOC2A7d23662769298230073427359339614102413845434801509052385394554056116071669268586966725573687563
NMVOC2B5a953075548828764287478656830298429527958897339864998610236104141053810568106701083410703110661149211135
NMVOC3D296859759972997449770979498229858989599399998100661014010205102561029510323103411035010360103591028810216
SOx1A2fi328142893130918267972795429842328433982341054160451534114047130191436514816147001359113362115201062510309106998160
NH32B5a20081662227319232093174619922020188019232096186519611893244722281930222416631147149317901888
NH34B1a58935780565454535600579458895929598664346545629062375809576058275731554054475360519650313040
NH34B1b42264301422042044192430844274479453545844667477448594955505451865266532253605393543454636059
CO1A2fi1826318280177171742017795182261878619569195652064020622201352066820371223752222121610223202196220151205491141810496
CO2B5a2314923149231492553627542289033052128375392913827639241392333905542899447474474741742397884239234650412783953426475

HM (Unit = g)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
Pb1A2fi3450717352020969005931476279410560120537782565533527554772786186270200442719541256910826888802533726266445526142102628873259626023793292227845218495018847191795805
Pb1A3bi4625308465162921625847295636212237786416651426647357652565973002555934272648676062684912449178812874858791406098930285858610081271847543990701814366357386473222610036254597454905232
Pb1A3biv65540416646034426399154062318371600811055890510621875488212157822150261121263587697950554536611902535414525853516292506731525853525853544975573658544975544975
Pb2C115781811342379194853819116941972276199560220239082060471194005921340772280385111522678897285853986245191685610014141046594120635494362693738711269861126749
Cd1A1a1347980142622219942901362114975920120850354996360356811421961179455820261103037013293665654824888849575564029973273332702051924231057279677785680
Cd1A2fi32095203509045308870530126143634481355724633939483744577391064338442763620076339255538410533866057380551443171613872924421339538939702430364285579916047321311354
Cd1A3ai(ii)665697315674106753017702280417817827878889841905241311421214911199101252331470151505041601061672691677311561261643031706471128082
Hg1A1a137549914532131889353146662112093321445325924208977508133826215254511299725141138317035431106938106051214188711013398837095751664786593524326652067755932
Hg1A2c13640515622914566811399011670714621014183815025015561015870316105915180913021812029511552711523290952817848388956072547923398821364
Hg1A2d334450362335385294388362407190393330389289403297402468412985430538383852377534343488392641377366394228395562394757407153413359411566424360
Hg1A2e1451961542291525641450581442341500061519631737771768591623491472731489521496281449221132081043351197331144601078371059401055116804153556
Hg1A2fi445202424526402794389509405554417272466933528249528419485764473110413962403494367155383647383225366106366550331085315471312596164030120965
Hg6Ca6474916474916474916474916474916474917232878419876336605593393812701735051525621258539559559253181135911052928845982298229822

POP (Unit = mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
DIOX1A2fi8498348178037977998548678699189289249089569769709971025101510181016261264
DIOX6Ca5390539053905390539053906021700952754656317414441270104879617292394305835284284284
HCB1A1a564916599118616082680084711781816606752521774646712596825244782470723755802356760960776554794567795541650531584179674283395750546068709696
HCB1A3ai(ii)2927773217463259243311793387503536803596833465193951293981325767765343285273765507846465836619297041597356637376946866587226207505201770109
HCB1A3aii(ii)35923258282725025352280083051430487316383659540563475944991753139509755686558454578165643253104590786125356557701607
HCB1A4bi111233260252246244244244238231224217210204197190183176169163156149159154