Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2010

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2010

PMs:

2000 – 2010

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
NOx1A1a642256780378113700446635275096592025742961243645755464052743609344663346215537524262040070306412730116019
NOx1A3bi380854250348393474094632445617448024364944206434544464442193426434165640051372783642634574345283478233928
NOx1A4ai43085055578158966752659572961096214054150661386516718175542046322410215581296212998811178853847
NMVOC11C404867419079433133447494462225431887432524433139433309434661435215433167431059428974426936424942424052423169422333421503420863
NMVOC1A4bi208831995519288188651866518666187231879118633183941829718359183551867118800188891882218815188061880211544
NMVOC2B5a95307554882876428747865683029842952795889733986499861023610414105381056810670114211094111177
SOx1A4bi260324822387232723222283229623192267222721952189218622212236224522352234223322321366
NH32B5a200816622273192320931746199220201880192320961865196118932447222819302224166311471493
CO1A4bi265880254566246657241768239354239507240677241144239509236904235871235919235840239591241091242066240766240329239629239382148932
COGRIDTOTAL831903846474876800857587843839830356822271795679787354764490721721661822642967617787601620568702541628519843521048486452386879
CONATIONALTOTAL831903846474876800857587843839830356822271795679787354764490721721661822642967617787601620568702541628519843521048486452386879
COUNFCCCTOTAL9587921010185975105927992893224936967879045833452858966812071829662754935761451918557721298749219655188615348   

HM (Unit = g)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
Pb1A1a337995035683674380420379748634410354010723303012131557273727189450747442609674345800502493339239583895541457286538725783241701296161731370882031678
Pb1A2a208249516694232591353251483627156222640554268865326999912426331261626928086846565901773815599157511667924810270861223368677401
Pb1A3bi46253979751629104958474632562121422464166122566474456425659835425559332426486538426848904591838968754657915296089363468577917812115475456937018778663655564800636100456
Pb1A3biv65543069645963096398380362305837600791975890579221877731212216492150737421266019692409552532618287541132527954514788506817528582525677550433573634
Pb1A4ai6711007738119071448937004510119763731357033716332039296899733737905936908580254797933277007228586501271927282792553618923136118983408057202458625431386478386
Pb1A4ci43266443514357299454387616107161553598194863623609412126333263553238324534825825462005147078244491776284334322090671875431504333742010532184
Cd1A1a13712211453087200779813961981029544125794861788668165212087321228155908200111313913990036716876161441077007550851467372412643333819243506
Cd1A2fi330325836150583195368311945937537393680860351828438712494058307399919737821573566759401070840400243967513447432740196364377543405936125767443000239
CdGRIDTOTAL541992258756626013033528691255926165747471495774154159686135025607830055303195461024616217754232085255317617460251744795414243502776834135843761036
CdNATIONALTOTAL541992258756626013033528691255926165747471495774154159686135025607830055303195461024616217754232085255317617460251744795414243502776834135843761036
Hg1A1a1409580149104919262231507973125820614938379754561037083140452515948451381296149582217871411203883117682815425021144309962655884242909196643584
Hg1A1b164338155337182381191508237389235581232024232388270678266005241471253782268516262933268452245894250447242456257718160537130151
Hg1A4bi414682396297383126374822371081370948372206373331369967365290363524364613364616370993373591375435374064373939373695373693229249
Hg6Ca64749164749164749164749164749164749172328784198763366055933938127017350515256212585395595592531811359110529288459822

POP (Unit = mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
DIOX1A4bi545652125037492748744876488949034861479847774798479948844918494349274927492749283023