Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NOx	1A2d	14819	16923	17243	16704	17777	17479	18246	19474	19015	19961	20103	19585	20902	19966	21157	21536	22262	22640	21920	23652
NOx	1A3bi	36755	40914	45980	42581	39866	38534	36593	34015	33883	32029	32377	30520	30028	28870	28984	27848	27167	25830	24349	23844
NMVOC	11C	404867	419079	433133	447494	462225	431887	432524	433139	433309	434634	435277	433414	431512	429671	427624	425931	425219	424514	423885	420011
NMVOC	1A3bi	54401	60913	69022	60956	55135	51872	48667	43584	40422	36662	32011	26115	23792	20815	18929	17413	15024	13111	11135	9795
NMVOC	1A4bi	20882	19953	19286	18863	18663	18664	18721	18789	18631	18392	18295	18357	18352	18668	18797	18886	18819	18812	18803	18800
NMVOC	2B5a	9530	7554	8828	7642	8747	8656	8302	9842	9527	9588	9733	9864	9986	10236	10414	10538	10568	10670	11421	10941
NMVOC	3D1	5350	5350	5350	5020	5962	5956	6390	6183	6306	5802	6622	7161	7831	7689	7578	8553	9140	9542	7815	6576
NMVOC	3D3	20330	21651	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991	20991
SOx	1A1a	156177	156447	202153	154326	122940	153039	106340	112221	142545	157507	132478	133423	136184	87381	91406	102330	84118	77860	39703	20917
SOx	2B5a	7561	5418	2808	2571	1858	4744	6052	5987	6275	6836	7516	6189	5852	7490	7470	6595	4591	6410	5658	142
NH3	2B5a	2008	1662	2273	1923	2093	1746	1992	2020	1880	1923	2096	1865	1961	1893	2447	2228	1930	2224	1663	1147
CO	1A2fi	16355	16511	16074	15851	16279	16655	16989	17470	17463	18768	18804	18338	18837	18780	19994	20320	20054	20698	20469	18392
CO	1A3bi	311276	339549	375695	342467	317553	304374	291234	263044	246860	226618	200323	167405	156293	138605	128324	115291	100305	89834	77282	69503
CO	1A4bi	265732	254410	246490	241591	239175	239326	240482	240955	239309	236692	235651	235715	235635	239392	240895	241874	240588	240160	239478	239236
CO	2B5a	23149	23149	23149	25536	27542	28903	30521	28375	39291	38276	39241	39233	39055	42899	44747	44747	41742	39788	52208	34650
CO	4F	30063	30938	25760	21990	27268	26328	28761	27904	26091	24621	23189	22684	21821	21110	20141	19260	19561	19848	19991	19933
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	958792	1010185	975105	927992	893224	936967	879045	833452	858966	812071	829662	754935	761451	918557	721298	749219	655188	615348

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Pb	1A2a	2082072	1669089	2590874	2514374	2715015	2640133	2688072	2699848	2426139	2616051	2808452	656331	17428	15251	15425	16295	24367	27195	12444	6911
Pb	1A3bi	444851641	499012168	567126046	610569645	634570914	659217130	254841743	254341940	263940776	267733234	9141012	8718569	9142716	8918349	8552670	8066235	7496506	6998517	6622254	6477902
Pb	1A3biv	73739895	71437298	69950314	60674443	54564528	51433580	18622819	17481512	17261323	16780454	544578	409485	439694	374480	377078	401543	398190	400173	394163	407362
Pb	1A4ai	6592206	7250308	7018199	6880356	11764113	13329865	16041881	29160620	36713053	36251224	25026393	32186600	28077751	26708628	27428468	18586778	11687477	7914928	451385	424514
Pb	1A4ci	424769	427128	562530	533988	1581766	1525784	1913831	2318840	2088393	2588839	3764147	4739853	4537979	4624152	4411577	2793590	2169764	1842110	495011	731463
Cd	1A1a	1371221	1453087	2007798	1396172	1029460	1257827	617765	681495	1208573	1227895	907996	1112944	1398849	671554	615877	1076735	550600	466412	411189	333819
Cd	1A2fi	3302177	3615062	3195328	3120803	3754596	3682885	3520934	3873384	4059614	4000507	3772860	3555776	3999252	4027792	3950943	4459874	4007718	4364855	4044482	2561016
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	5412894	5869565	6006652	5282068	5586201	5745725	4965805	5439073	6144582	6091424	5527982	5462086	6161739	5421407	5238598	6170711	5157600	5397850	5003837	3389933
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	5412894	5869565	6006652	5282068	5586201	5745725	4965805	5439073	6144582	6091424	5527982	5462086	6161739	5421407	5238598	6170711	5157600	5397850	5003837	3389933
Hg	1A1a	1409580	1491049	1926223	1507953	1258142	1493744	975364	1036963	1404405	1594647	1381143	1495676	1787024	1203781	1176624	1542265	1144092	961876	883067	909119
Hg	1A1b	164338	155337	182381	191508	237389	235581	232024	232388	270678	266005	241471	253782	268516	262933	268452	245894	250447	242456	257718	160537
Hg	1A4bi	414571	396181	383002	374691	370947	370815	372062	373192	369819	365129	363349	364442	364438	370813	373413	375255	373894	373772	373538	373540
Hg	6Ca	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	723287	841987	633660	559339	381270	173505	152562	125853	95595	5925	3181	3181	3181	3181

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
DIOX	1A4bi	5456	5212	5037	4927	4874	4876	4889	4903	4861	4798	4777	4798	4798	4883	4917	4942	4926	4926	4926	4927