Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2008

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2008

PMs:

2000 – 2008

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
NOx1A3bi37373416474688744428422824134039696369003670034746349873211432075301022992829079286452765125669
NOx1A4ai430450505775589067456589728810949140371504413842166871751920422223672151812925129708109
NMVOC11C404867419079433133447494462225431887432524433139433309434634435277433414431512429671427624425748425033424327423890
NMVOC1A3bi52998591186689060026550035217446897422654144137882333992666025383233322001218484160181408712087
NMVOC1A4bi20882199531928618863186631866418721187891863118392182951835718352186681879718886188191881218803
NMVOC2B5a10073808294188135927791818884103661020710237103181055010673109271111611207112311149212855
NMVOC3D320330216512099120991209912099120991209912099120991209912099120991209912099120991209912099120991
SOx1A1a1561981564552021751543501230071529781063011121991426701575581334581353761381358799991986102988846657856633735
CO1A3bi32444335332638996536050733792032608131411128468526829324777822020618021717548815502214236412933311369210233688169
CO1A4bi265732254410246490241591239175239326240482240955239309236692235651235715235635239392240895241874240588240160239478
CO4F30063309382576021990272682632828761279042609124621231892268421821211101969218810191041938820038
COUNFCCCTOTAL9587921010185975105927992893224936967879045833452858966812071829662754935761451918557721298749219655188615348 

HM (Unit = g)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
Pb1A2a2082072166908925908742514374271501526401332688072269984824261392616051280845265633117428152511542516295243672719512444
Pb1A3bi449385550503518784571866708614444795637960653662415092256047756255498325265105987268871323917914987470069172511894520985880868104829753321170307326654594
Pb1A3biv69201989669264536520520256795006511702644823087117414675163224341609296615638649506332381038409917347641341674362939362665370266364099
Pb1A4ai6592206725030870181996880356117641131332986516041881291606203671305336251224250263933218660028077751267086282742846818586778116874867915052451812
Pb1A4ci42476942712856253053398815817661525784191383123188402088393258883937641474739853453797946241524411577279359021697641842110495011
Pb6Cb1044658310655514108686251108599711307717115338711176454911999840122398361248463364348981175197516336392206170742061707420617074210294162145000421879004
Cd1A1a13715131452544200741713958241030023125677561684768185112101301229660921578113991214271016945036399801102327574396495704435431
Hg1A1a1409822149118319265081508213125918414935429752311036886140564615951761391057151570618082871220803119475915615571162040988327890685
Hg1A4bi414571396181383002374691370947370815372062373192369819365129363349364442364438370813373413375255373895373773373540
Hg6Ca647491647491647491647491647491647491723287841987633660559339381270173505152562125853955955925318131813181

POP (Unit = mg)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
DIOX1A4ai8191103106124123121146198222222260284336371374236245162
DIOX1A4bi5456521250374927487448764889490348614798477747984798488349174942492749264926