Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2007
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2007
PMs:	2000 – 2007

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
NOx	1A3bi	39573	44518	50523	47532	44735	43603	42972	40955	40454	39325	39372	37099	37030	36192	35235	34322	33368	31646
NMVOC	1A3bi	38270	41925	46941	44394	41171	39757	38164	34174	31275	28380	26418	22620	22062	20461	18783	16881	14827	13290
NMVOC	1A3bv	33935	37143	33672	29446	26550	24768	22759	20803	19480	17865	14652	12953	12763	11802	10941	9996	8982	8179
NMVOC	1A4bi	21911	20937	20237	19792	19583	19584	19644	19715	19549	19298	19196	19261	19257	19588	19723	19817	19747	19740
NMVOC	2D2	10824	10321	10242	10098	10327	10063	10203	10537	10078	10511	10562	10764	10845	11032	11378	11024	11089	11152
NMVOC	4D1a	25841	26010	25779	25612	25573	25200	25138	25053	24524	25149	25092	25055	24987	24988	24792	24773	24506	24198
NMVOC	GRIDTOTAL	304414	312257	317913	306937	306436	304613	304856	307089	304982	299047	293319	292320	294501	290161	290201	286952	284796	283248
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	304414	312257	317913	306937	306436	304613	304856	307089	304982	299047	293319	292320	294501	290161	290201	286952	284796	283248
NMVOC	NECDTOTAL	304414	312257	317913	306937	306436	304613	304856	307089	304982	299047	293319	292320	294501	290161	290201	286952	284796	283248
NMVOC	SNAPTOTAL	304441	312279	317934	306957	306457	304631	304875	307109	305001	299064	293337	292335	294514	290177	290214	286964	284807	283259
SOx	7B	379026	393069	407354	421882	436653	406687	407386	408086	408786	409485	410185	410791	411397	411746	412097	412448	412363	412280
NH3	7B	379026	393069	407354	421882	436653	406687	407386	408086	408786	409485	410185	410791	411397	411746	412097	412448	412363	412280
CO	1A3bi	398617	425469	465247	440042	408567	394347	378948	347992	329734	308209	294689	257863	255114	239415	222521	202189	180627	163214
CO	1A4bi	278828	266948	258638	253497	250962	251121	252333	252829	251103	248357	247265	247332	247248	251190	252767	253794	252446	251996
CO	2B5a	23149	23149	23149	25536	27542	28903	30521	28375	39291	38276	39241	40542	42343	44143	45943	47744	49544	51345
CO	4F	30063	30938	25760	21990	27268	26328	28761	27904	26091	24621	23189	22684	21821	21110	19692	18810	19104	19419
CO	GRIDTOTAL	878283	891437	924085	891293	865008	850370	838955	810085	799082	774730	761632	707557	698531	677921	667305	640999	617511	601120
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	878283	891437	924085	891293	865008	850370	838955	810085	799082	774730	761632	707557	698531	677921	667305	640999	617511	601120
CO	NECDTOTAL	878283	891437	924085	891293	865008	850370	838955	810085	799082	774730	761632	707557	698531	677921	667305	640999	617511	601120
CO	SNAPTOTAL	878345	891493	924139	891344	865058	850419	839006	810139	799142	774789	761690	707616	698587	677981	667370	641059	617570	601176
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	958792	1010185	975105	927992	893224	936967	879045	833452	858966	812071	829662	754935	761451	918557	721298	749219	655188	615348

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Pb	1A3biv	42256812	38149318	35157954	30803133	26988151	24113433	21544963	18951304	16446397	8376225	389007	326775	348672	282217	270107	251057	235522	234590
Pb	1A4ai	6592206	7250308	7018199	6880356	11764113	13329865	16041881	29160620	36713053	36251224	25026393	32186600	28077751	26708628	27428468	18586778	11687480	7894948
Pb	1A4ci	430568	432960	570210	541279	1603362	1546616	1939961	2350500	2116907	2624185	3815539	4804568	4599938	4687286	4471810	2831732	2199388	1683788
Pb	6Cb	10933216	11151880	11374918	11602416	11834464	12071154	12312577	12558828	12810005	13066205	6734655	12299417	17097391	21577479	21577479	21577479	22009029	22449209
Cd	1A1a	1371513	1452544	2007417	1395824	1030023	1256775	616847	681851	1210130	1229660	921578	1139039	1432057	715214	674352	1132845	585206	516477
Hg	1A1a	1409822	1491183	1926508	1508213	1259184	1493542	975231	1036886	1405646	1595176	1391057	1515078	1814540	1245667	1230587	1594799	1180477	1014452
Hg	1A4bi	435002	415706	401878	393157	389228	389090	390398	391584	388045	383123	381256	382403	382399	389088	391816	393749	392326	392195
Hg	6Ca	643450	643450	643450	643450	643450	643450	718773	836732	629705	555848	378890	172422	151610	125067	94998	5888	3161	3161

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
DIOX	1A4bi	5456	5212	5037	4927	4874	4876	4889	4903	4861	4798	4777	4798	4798	4883	4917	4942	4927	4926