Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PL

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
NMVOC4D1a           336503234432101316943170031527000
CONATIONALTOTAL7406000 708300086550005115000454700048370004700000430100043630003463000352790034098033317532342579033334502804117255314027173952694553

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb1A3e           152200046000043340017544000433000    
Pb1A4ai           47194000424400004164990040900037913000103673549472280965536810515046
Pb1B1b           19700001930000225100017411000187400021149312236901  
Pb2C2                3128140495935271745294168
Pb2C5e           791450007562000080246100 74928000392537392537  
Pb6Cb           703900012600001456000955590003045000    
Cd1A1a           10080006400006181004350004100002449806216458422157212376329
Cd1A2b           218100023900002511600184800017770002929212283296420788771910071
Cd1A4ai           7439000669000065639008200059740001640763149912615525261689388
Cd1A4ci           5047000500000050647001811000055510005138115434958450921304933007
Cd1B1b           4480004400005116005007000426000480666508387  
Cd2C1                19654551958294491537354566
Cd2C5e           1566000166000015758002720001611000    
Cd6Cb           6030001100001248001910000261000    
Hg1A2b           135760150000158300226000244000114050713089041341016959857
Hg1A2fi           813000075400007661100161700081560003204750342852614138531276050
Hg1A4ai           114300010300001009400 920000244108223012243337265331
Hg1A4bi           989000910000915200943000961000100274487637610060961019796
Hg1A4ci           157000150000153000828000159000189294162130186553187646
Hg2B5a           98000010100001006600306000358000208165385842787227872
Hg2C5e           574000533400605600358000655000    
Hg6Cb           603000110000124800738000261000    

POP (Unit = mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
DIOXNATIONALTOTAL529100535400517100591800519500514500484200439500381300381100333400447490433366482301482601416358449270395511399797393260