Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PL

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2008
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2008
PMs:	2000 – 2008

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
NMVOC	4D1a												33650	32344	32101	31694	31700	31527	0	0
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	7406000		7083000	8655000	5115000	4547000	4837000	4700000	4301000	4363000	3463000	3527900	3409803	2625585	3425790	3333450	2804117	2553140	2673529

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Pb	1A3e												1522000	460000	433400	17544000	433000
Pb	1A4ai												47194000	42440000	41649900	409000	37913000	10367354	9472280	9687742
Pb	1B1b												1970000	1930000	2251000	17411000	1874000	2114931	2236901	2162763
Pb	2C5e												79145000	75620000	80246100		74928000	392537	392537	392537
Pb	6Cb												7039000	1260000	1456000	95559000	3045000
Cd	1A1a												1008000	640000	618100	435000	410000	2449806	2164584	2235861
Cd	1A2b												2181000	2390000	2511600	1848000	1777000	2929212	2832964	2872224
Cd	1A4ai												7439000	6690000	6563900	82000	5974000	1640763	1499126	1531603
Cd	1A4ci												5047000	5000000	5064700	18110000	5551000	5138115	4349584	5190462
Cd	1B1b												448000	440000	511600	5007000	426000	480666	508387	491537
Cd	2C5e												1566000	1660000	1575800	272000	1611000
Cd	6Cb												603000	110000	124800	1910000	261000
Hg	1A2b												135760	150000	158300	226000	244000	1140507	1308904	1341013
Hg	1A2fi												8130000	7540000	7661100	1617000	8156000	3204750	3428526	3289797
Hg	1A4ai												1143000	1030000	1009400		920000	244108	223012	229732
Hg	1A4bi												989000	910000	915200	943000	961000	1002744	876376	950843
Hg	1A4ci												157000	150000	153000	828000	159000	189294	162130	181859
Hg	2B5a												980000	1010000	1006600	306000	358000	208165	38584	27872
Hg	2C5e												574000	1540000	605600	358000	655000
Hg	6Cb												603000	110000	124800	738000	261000