Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: NO

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	2C2	9280	8107	7790	8715	9765	9968	9729	10286	10746	10707	11114	10659	9814	9258	10570	9741	7002	8086	9253	5926	9392
NMVOC	3A3	13003	11002	10934	10921	12609	9551	9953	9797	8190	9348	8579	9143	9713	10283	10853	91	33	39	24	20	40
SOx	2A1	584	375	250	488	502	655	773	867	754	643	566	596	470	629	488	713	740	696	629	617	710
NH3	4D1a	1231	1234	1235	1219	1207	1236	1249	1259	1252	1182	1301	1250	1375	1410	1527	1493	1396	1548	1462	2000	1642

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A1a	2024365	2025924	2026014	2025829	2027819	989716	1048763	932700	1094023	621493	420522	304443	148325	149590	46524	70723	77572	68578	71068	54574	59604
Pb	1A2fi	357938	381460	419693	449342	518126	521433	542545	569368	553754	358641	302240	161419	201739	142982	89031	107695	88825	72368	161791	180290	271699
Pb	1A3	169511129	128257967	112968166	74997300	13907195	13725843	2008503	1889019	1809568	1870242	1883210	1895043	2111859	2124381	2271153	2015273	2057401	2192599	2226143	2209048	2202714
Pb	1A3aii(i)	561718	487806	460393	436772	426210	375854	401986	399101	294972	345298	350189	342760	538184	453926	546821	312007	243808	222273	242260	248180	253005
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	1743091	1512689	1427086	1344554	1311048	1154639	1234678	1225316	1190784	1394450	1416416	1386828	2190033	1844151	2224677	1265011	984688	893756	974301	998445	1017719
Pb	1A3bi	153280511	115563463	101452049	66837152	11122803	10949766	234402	55711	56421	56671	56196	60540	63313	65996	70587	74020	80621	90428	96121	100896	109612
Pb	1A3bii	11302002	8697467	7790988	5183853	873796	867861	34553	24863	27874	28086	29138	32298	32999	33658	35235	36494	39213	41871	44303	45172	47652
Pb	1A3di(i)	255636	232287	301048	319072	355078	418144	467148	525973	466837	421397	403361	402128	274456	285548	288148	342507	358786	308009	316380	253600	192096
Pb	1A4bii	5582274	4353313	3946268	2619011	438690	439660	10207	3189	3194	3201	3207	3207	3216	3219	3221	3220	3220	3237	3244	3269	3269
Pb	2A7d	1533600	1532500	1531300	1520200	1154900	1348200	1372500	1006500	861500	202200	148300	43990	90390	181390	29300	17700	6739	4460	5140	4602	4375
Pb	2B4	1031000	1031000	1031000	721000	481000	511000	451000	468000	483000	357000	361900	371800	460600	164200	191600	167800	119330	204690	125080	38350	48140
Pb	2C1	2709000	2709000	2709000	2515800	2846400	2884200	2837021	2853200	2799390	2829350	3036480	2757890	2876480	2962970	3385710	2583730	2657480	2944100	2119240	467350	378700
Pb	2C2	1360664	1235710	1308890	1536430	1809900	1249240	1503160	1460860	1819170	1745000	642700	351800	337160	311460	439810	415280	349760	562880	498745	256547	431078
Pb	2C3	595580	575990	566780	537130	513930	489540	494560	519290	492500	495887	502160	486818	468602	440511	405175	445216	162654	301437	227063	205837	206870
Pb	2C5e	275300	275300	275300	275300	275300	272700	272700	272700	272700	272700	272700	272700	272700	352000	522300	267000	188150	230000	185800	150700	172800
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	186978896	143937914	128145269	88335742	24980827	23439996	11640346	11024819	11237380	9729026	8427562	7564727	7859108	7905615	8443774	7088779	6831752	7556431	6605155	4489747	4642417
Pb	UNFCCCTOTAL	188719747	145448427	129569980	89677744	26289553	24592182	12872362	12247189	12424987	11119690	9840368	8948207	10046196	9746762	10664840	8348819	7810595	8445306	7574613	5483250	5653688
Cd	1A2d	121073	119144	113734	115489	135893	138094	134446	132714	131087	127836	114881	132363	122938	132426	123975	123183	128866	123401	129261	98903	145805
Cd	2A1	700	300	700	700	700	800	800	800	800	800	7100	5300	23480	43390	6800	1200	2690	740	320	220	450
Cd	2C1	48600	48600	52600	55100	52800	51020	49020	49020	47020	44030	44570	51400	50000	60700	63860	50550	53090	66100	52300	4800	5560
Cd	2C2	253880	224840	232370	288180	308020	184980	255090	236210	309450	280500	69400	38460	33940	12110	21140	8190	53669	14800	20661	6564	37651
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1172228	1112428	1099436	1172442	1210633	1045485	1127838	1118109	1172389	1111983	776528	774767	768215	747546	678037	636739	689070	628821	605596	482990	588415
Cd	UNFCCCTOTAL	1173315	1113560	1100585	1173553	1211951	1046907	1129430	1119709	1174012	1113832	778205	776521	769722	749128	679509	637693	690039	630204	607047	484509	589750
Hg	2B5a	71010	69610	59610	60710	61910	58940	65200	86817	21532	8529	1947	724	366	229	9	6	8	17	8	11	12
Hg	2C1	102250	102250	126250	140250	126250	126250	112250	114250	100250	102250	102250	118570	132440	134910	114010	114940	87856	67300	87100	18110	12865
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1455999	1363266	1254627	936512	1028674	841443	873021	893197	844430	891793	734161	692028	661921	667281	695532	689081	643990	653771	598790	513883	579697
Hg	UNFCCCTOTAL	1459183	1366595	1258012	939787	1032570	845658	877745	897945	849246	897280	739129	697229	666342	671943	699852	691889	646854	657879	603100	518394	583656

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	1A2d	1137	1107	1065	1071	1174	1226	1132	6264	1177	4432	4306	3153	1161	1219	1140	1168	1223	1215	1302	986	1398
DIOX	1A3dii	2137	2092	2197	2449	2279	2380	2437	2724	2955	3235	2799	2427	2345	2406	2469	2469	2587	2734	2317	2277	2494
DIOX	2A1	184	166	184	184	144	151	351	269	194	44	132	123	230	197	50	42	59	49	127	257	993