Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: NO

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NMVOC	3A3	13003	11002	10934	10921	12609	9551	9953	9797	8190	9348	8579	9143	9713	10283	10853	91	33	39	24	20
SOx	2A1	584	375	250	488	502	655	773	867	754	643	566	596	470	629	488	713	740	696	629	617
NH3	4D1a	1231	1234	1235	1219	1207	1236	1249	1259	1252	1182	1301	1250	1375	1410	1527	1493	1396	1548	1462	2000

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Pb	1A1a	1786365	1787924	1788014	1787829	1789819	646716	649363	646400	649333	644093	420522	304443	141209	142876	38522	58202	61569	57330	68156	49215
Pb	1A2fi	357938	381460	419693	449342	518126	521433	542545	569368	553754	358641	302240	161419	201739	142982	89031	107695	88825	72368	161791	154419
Pb	1A3	169508480	128255096	112965171	74994241	13904085	13722769	2005509	1886030	1806634	1867307	1880221	1891919	2108582	2121067	2267758	2013542	2054072	2185695	2222296	2203587
Pb	1A3aii(i)	561718	487806	460393	436772	426210	375854	401986	399101	294972	345298	350189	342760	538184	453926	546821	312007	243808	222235	242089	248096
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	1743091	1512689	1427086	1344554	1311048	1154639	1234678	1225316	1190784	1394450	1416416	1386828	2190033	1844151	2224677	1265011	984688	893794	974473	998529
Pb	1A3bi	153280511	115563463	101452049	66837152	11122803	10949766	234402	55711	56421	56671	56196	60540	63313	65996	70587	74020	80621	90428	96121	99947
Pb	1A3bii	11302002	8697467	7790988	5183853	873796	867861	34553	24863	27874	28086	29138	32298	32999	33658	35235	36494	39213	41871	44303	44904
Pb	1A3di(i)	255636	232287	301048	319072	355078	418144	467148	525973	466837	421397	403361	402128	274456	285548	288148	342507	358786	308009	316380	263329
Pb	1A4bii	5582274	4353313	3946268	2619011	438690	439660	10207	3189	3194	3201	3207	3207	3216	3219	3221	3220	3220	3237	3244	3252
Pb	2A7d	1533600	1532500	1531300	1520200	1154900	1348200	1372500	1006500	861500	202200	148300	43990	90390	181390	29300	17700	6739	4460	5140	4602
Pb	2B4	1031000	1031000	1031000	721000	481000	511000	451000	468000	483000	357000	361900	371800	460600	164200	191600	167800	119330	204690	125080	38350
Pb	2C1	2709000	2709000	2709000	2515800	2846400	2884200	2837021	2853200	2799390	2829350	3036480	2757890	2876480	2962970	3385710	2583730	2657480	2944100	2119240	809050
Pb	2C2	1360664	1235710	1308890	1536430	1809900	1249240	1503160	1460860	1819170	1745000	642700	351800	337160	311460	439810	415280	348560	562880	498745	256547
Pb	2C3	595580	575990	566780	537130	513930	489540	494560	519290	492500	495887	502160	486818	468602	440511	405175	445216	162654	301437	227063	205837
Pb	2C5e	76600	76600	76600	76600	76600	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	153300	323600	67000	37150	20000	17800	31700
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	186538767	143497730	127705244	87893607	24538953	22892530	11037336	10535433	10589899	9548768	8224804	7361008	7648614	7696186	8232921	6871040	6659961	7326486	6427747	4680170
Pb	UNFCCCTOTAL	188279618	145008243	129129955	89235609	25847679	24044715	12269351	11757803	11777506	10939432	9637610	8744488	9835701	9537334	10453987	8131080	7638803	8215399	7397376	5676310
Cd	1A2d	121073	119144	113734	115489	135893	138094	134446	132714	131087	127836	114881	132363	122938	132426	123975	123183	128866	123401	129261	99868
Cd	2A1	700	300	700	700	700	800	800	800	800	800	7100	5300	23480	43390	6800	1200	2690	740	320	220
Cd	2C1	48600	48600	52600	55100	52800	51020	49020	49020	47020	44030	44570	51400	50000	60700	63860	50550	53090	66100	52300	14900
Cd	2C2	253880	224840	232370	288180	308020	184980	255090	236210	309450	280500	69400	38460	33940	12110	21140	8190	53649	14800	20661	6564
Cd	2C3	91410	89010	89180	86610	84760	80830	82350	93170	89840	97420	100000	100992	98916	95516	85308	94404	84509	60412	43656	29970
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1172858	1113493	1100744	1173135	1223030	1048066	1134188	1120116	1158798	1101920	775231	773575	767331	746609	677212	636440	688197	621710	599329	487980
Cd	UNFCCCTOTAL	1173945	1114625	1101894	1174246	1224348	1049487	1135781	1121716	1160421	1103769	776907	775328	768837	748190	678685	637394	689166	623098	600805	489875
Hg	2B5a	71010	69610	59610	60710	61910	58940	65200	86817	21532	8529	1947	724	366	229	9	6	8	17	8	11
Hg	2C1	102250	102250	126250	140250	126250	126250	112250	114250	100250	102250	102250	118570	132440	134910	114010	114940	87856	67300	87100	18110
Hg	2C2	500193	500780	470940	139080	143780	144500	123420	124260	161800	230400	150100	80926	47940	43700	85720	53430	51970	101350	38185	20623
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1459330	1366622	1218020	899825	940595	850725	875756	882920	844898	888427	733784	685486	660977	666239	693774	685695	642627	650563	597303	507493
Hg	UNFCCCTOTAL	1462514	1369952	1221405	903099	944491	854939	880480	887669	849714	893914	738752	690687	665399	670901	698094	688502	645491	654688	601687	513135

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
DIOX	1A3dii	2137	2092	2197	2449	2279	2380	2437	2724	2955	3235	2799	2427	2345	2406	2469	2535	2587	2605	2317	2384
DIOX	2C3	733	733	733	733	890	751	763	806	1022	1224	1089	1045	1021	1080	1134	1136	1187	1251	1159	1064