Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: NO

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2008
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2008
PMs:	2000 – 2008

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
NMVOC	3A3	13003	11002	10934	10921	12609	9551	9953	9797	8190	9348	8579	9143	9713	10283	10853	91	33	39	24
SOx	2A1	584	375	217	488	502	655	773	867	754	643	566	596	470	629	488	713	740	696	629
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	52165	43755	36807	34971	34783	33714	33085	30454	29959	29288	27085	25239	22897	23237	24985	23849	21106	20117	20216
SOx	UNFCCCTOTAL	52198	43798	36844	35017	34831	33779	33164	30528	30027	29348	27146	25319	22945	23285	25030	23876	21132	20158	20269
NH3	4D1a	1231	1234	1235	1219	1207	1236	1249	1259	1252	1182	1198	1123	1130	1163	1173	1193	1162	1201	1299

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Pb	1A1a	1786365	1787924	1788014	1787829	1789819	646716	649363	646400	649333	644093	420522	304443	141209	142876	38522	58202	62139	56673	67376
Pb	1A2fi	376726	390266	424299	449342	518247	526897	546379	574416	553864	358778	303634	174602	214911	154841	100958	120994	100694	84328	66787
Pb	1A3	169554561	128301036	113011883	75019214	13931392	13742884	2042313	1896647	1840094	1900784	1903542	1914358	2126292	2188101	2317324	2106387	2118862	2213965	2284944
Pb	1A3aii(i)	561718	487806	460393	436772	426210	375854	401986	399101	294972	345298	350189	342760	538184	453926	546821	312007	243808	222235	243516
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	1743091	1512689	1427086	1344554	1311048	1154639	1234678	1225316	1190784	1394450	1416416	1386828	2190033	1844151	2224677	1265011	984688	893794	977209
Pb	1A3bi	143632766	108234470	95106639	62521871	10391861	10249183	217587	51598	53482	53496	52981	56889	58815	61201	65146	69319	75029	82850	89241
Pb	1A3bii	21194354	16182929	14289309	9473102	1598624	1564568	52012	31166	34414	34825	35769	39742	41353	42361	44601	47498	52129	57324	58947
Pb	1A3di(i)	255636	232287	301048	319072	355078	418144	467148	525973	466837	421397	403361	402128	274456	285548	288148	342507	358786	344679	316380
Pb	1A4bii	5582274	4353313	3946268	2619011	438690	439660	10207	3189	3194	3201	3207	3207	3216	3219	3221	3220	3220	3220	3221
Pb	2A7d	1533600	1532500	1531300	1520200	1154900	1348200	1372500	1006500	861500	202200	148300	43990	90390	181390	29300	17700	6739	4460	5140
Pb	2B4	1031000	1031000	1031000	721000	481000	511000	451000	468000	483000	357000	361900	371800	460600	164200	191600	167800	119330	204690	125080
Pb	2C1	2709000	2709000	2709000	2515800	2846400	2884200	2837021	2853200	2799390	2829350	3036480	2757890	2876480	2962970	3385710	2583730	2657480	2944100	2119240
Pb	2C2	1360664	1235710	1308890	1536430	1809900	1249240	1503160	1460860	1819170	1745000	642700	351800	337160	311460	439810	415280	348560	562880	498745
Pb	2C5e	76600	76600	76600	76600	76600	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	153300	323600	67000	37150	20000	17800
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	185716078	142843678	127096740	87243088	23968430	22306772	10444791	9943677	10004467	8952126	7602181	6783448	7110001	7160417	7737031	6312991	6250186	6713602	5817910
Pb	UNFCCCTOTAL	187456929	144354191	128521451	88585090	25277156	23458957	11676806	11166048	11192073	10342791	9014987	8166927	9297088	9001564	9958097	7573032	7229029	7602515	6790210
Cd	2A1	700	700	700	700	700	800	800	800	800	800	7100	5300	23480	43390	6800	1200	2690	740	320
Cd	2C2	253880	224840	232370	288180	308020	184980	255090	236210	309450	280500	69400	38460	33940	12110	21140	8190	53649	14800	20351
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1110523	1048084	1024976	1104428	1151552	983349	1069238	1039871	1082443	1016773	688200	683171	680860	658632	600694	544150	600489	552835	545806
Cd	UNFCCCTOTAL	1111610	1049216	1026125	1105540	1152870	984771	1070831	1041471	1084066	1018622	689877	684925	682366	660214	602167	545104	601458	554222	547663
Hg	2B5a	71010	69610	59610	60710	61910	58940	65200	86817	21532	8529	1947	724	366	229	9	6	8	17	8
Hg	2C2	500193	500780	470940	139080	143780	144500	123420	124260	161800	230400	150100	80926	47940	43700	85720	53430	51970	101350	38185
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1502356	1402737	1235952	924875	958049	872653	899876	899977	862802	904529	751278	698993	670798	673178	702330	692938	647239	664940	619698
Hg	UNFCCCTOTAL	1505540	1406066	1239336	928150	961945	876868	904599	904725	867618	910015	756245	704194	675220	677840	706649	695746	650103	669065	625226

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
DIOX	1A3dii	2431	2427	2506	2711	2513	2620	2764	3050	3397	3670	3281	2860	2816	2792	2839	3074	3170	3301	2937
DIOX	2C3	733	733	733	733	890	751	763	806	1022	1224	1089	1045	1021	1080	1134	1136	1187	1251	1193