Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: NL

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NMVOC	1A2c	24505	22314	20123	17932	15741	13550	10766	7982	5198	637	5622	5318	5730	6004	5772	7237	7530	6707	6239	5063	3672
NMVOC	1A4bi	13222	13149	13085	12478	12433	12622	12011	11598	11437	10242	9421	10145	9964	9900	9356	9425	9445	9465	9438	9358	9392
NMVOC	2D2	7061	6944	6827	6711	6594	6477	3173	3838	6114	5400	6027	5416	4858	4899	4986	5100	4674	5295	5087	4997	5053
NMVOC	3A1	13515	13122	12729	12336	11943	11550	10364	9179	7993	7619	6952	6313	5434	4697	3754	4100	3800	3613	3449	3033	2934
SOx	1A1b	67086	65900	64715	63529	62343	61158	57044	52931	48818	46202	33143	34745	30347	29510	32256	32151	32414	29897	25718	17917	12731
SOx	1A2c	19946	18248	16550	14852	13154	11456	10395	9333	8271	5653	3095	4223	4118	3626	4252	3903	4004	3957	3309	2245	2088
SOx	1A2fi	5186	4777	4369	3961	3553	3144	3135	3127	3118	2281	2008	1576	1680	676	2306	1975	2617	2534	2242	2252	2653
NH3	7A	14295	15352	13512	13514	12613	11589	11831	12394	12047	11252	9998	11963	11534	11443	11370	11789	11569	11249	10627	10467	9591
CO	1A2b	37415	36501	35586	34672	33758	32844	35633	38421	41210	34703	40906	43996	38803	43001	59970	48762	41642	42981	50184	23643	12872
CO	1A3bi	585883	508825	495851	458753	442121	422224	405920	384845	368878	357014	340966	327011	312549	298539	290173	274737	262764	255246	257757	248722	237257
CO	1A3di(i)	14237	13339	13668	13996	14297	14631	15074	15798	16426	16999	17883	18254	18609	18966	19451	19741	20837	20020	19387	18912	17088
CO	1A4bii	14987	18507	21161	23636	25806	27609	28723	29435	29879	29979	29954	29914	29826	29717	29627	29548	29428	29259	29099	28945	28794

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
PM2.5	1A2a	967	0	1	7	6	0	47	24	8	17	17
PM2.5	1A2c	745	14	81	137	147	107	57	17	75	144	69
PM10	1A2a	1503	0	1	9	8	0	51	24	9	20	18
TSP	1A2a	1503	0	1	58	46	0	352	167	9	78	22

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A1a	16335731	10909406	8479554	6049703	3619851	1559507	1218615	877722	536830	234446	178180	189310	205099	225633	261327	199037	253296	192612	272093	327638	351306
Pb	1A2c	751476	667324	583171	499019	414866	330713	477029	623345	769661	396331	23000	105	239	405	4181	324			1112000	1404000	2927000
Pb	1A3	257421518	207605266	163618975	145450162	116219735	93391508	53497512	11367999	9622594	9337918	9387105	9182595	9276899	8962507	8927008	8885101	9111116	9221734	9464448	9568194	9494692
Pb	1A3bi	224988329	179835372	143087688	120888502	96647433	73975044	39324697	1598896	37043	38017	38246	38185	38417	38689	39761	39198	39022	39386	39717	39978	39963
Pb	1A3bii	10171628	7589755	5567067	4604559	3244860	2214318	1476488	738658	827	740	582	441	376	327	327	280	232	203	181	174	160
Pb	1A3bvi	5169378	4860557	5064228	4953290	4979517	5027591	4991149	4978267	4982468	5081398	5012200	5071530	5154233	5209629	5342406	5345856	5379241	5484518	5629572	5598337	5593072
Pb	2B5a	2972194	2649863	2327532	2005201	1682870	1360539	1171909	983278	794648	932486	1070324	2076572	2961000	3741304	2449830	2199416	2545286	1675886	666686	261386	236986
Cd	1A1a	949190	706800	568600	430400	292200	164884	110627	74100	54906	48240	77760	103435	112285	69884	50390	88166	92182	89050	134818	231817	184002
Cd	1A1b	109830	112659	115487	118316	121144	123973	83543	43113	2682	3991	5300	5466	4136	4000	8700	100	2000	7490	6410	1000
Cd	1A2a	215	11360	22506	33651	44797	55942													700
Cd	1A2c	22447	22728	23010	23291	23572	23854	62614	101374	140134			10	24	41	386				767000	659000	1282000
Cd	2B5a	19	11125	22230	33335	44440	55545	44147	32748	21350	24768	28185	559000	876000	1264000	847700	801910	1035900	574800	99600	92000	101000
Cd	2C1	686600	630895	575190	519486	463781	408076	468856	529636	590416	499158	407900	627700	917400	705800	692600	660000	687099	906900	730100	686760	826650
Cd	2C3	12160	11918	11676	11434	11192	10950	12000	100000	180500	222300	264100	189796	158000	206500	48771	14323	9396	16474	14635	4300	3600
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	2088601	1792733	1610686	1424219	1241209	1069488	917100	1014093	1124341	932647	922871	1603917	2171630	2327272	1731240	1672038	1933008	1702512	1869907	1785066	2512763
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2088601	1792733	1610686	1424219	1241209	1069488	917100	1014093	1124341	932647	922871	1603917	2171630	2327272	1731240	1672038	1933008	1702512	1869907	1785066	2512763
Hg	1A1a	1923277	1425000	1117000	809000	501000	378709	347689	316669	285649	341117	396585	349073	295815	262626	348940	372248	334697	276550	238647	221216	220098
Hg	1A1b	60493	63252	66012	68772	71531	74291	49756	25222	687	4094	7500	11640	8520	5670	7800	30	1023	1840	740	2000
Hg	1A1c	254	221	187	154	120	87	8457	16826	25196	27598	30000	37009	8001	5		1300	100	100	100
Hg	1A2c	118052	95372	72692	50012	27332	4653	3113	1574	34	32567	65100	6	14	524	481		100	100	11060	6050	6040
Hg	1A2fi	1354	1120	887	653	419	185	1642	2299	1001			323	283	2520	72		30	36850	8549	8143	10111
Hg	2A1	108940	106940	104940	102940	100940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	52200	12970	12170	10360
Hg	2B5a	702161	638281	574402	510523	446644	382764	341843	300921	260000	228000	196000	86700	60000	52000	50010	52200	40000	23000			90
Hg	2C1	388331	380957	373582	366207	358832	351457	237935	124412	10890	51095	91300	124400	124000	124990	213504	209160	199441	275300	289700	271100	309200
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	3514023	2903480	2484183	2063222	1643919	1410857	1203114	998103	791956	892238	1009419	830144	716176	667186	838421	853911	793093	769634	658197	634457	685730
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3514023	2903480	2484183	2063222	1643919	1410857	1203114	998103	791956	892238	1009419	830144	716176	667186	838421	853911	793093	769634	658197	634457	685730

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	1A2c	0	0	0	0	0	0	334	667	1001	500	0			5	8	735	11	12	451	1358	3939