Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MT

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
CO	1A4ai											22	19	18	18	22	0	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A1a											614388	688080	674571	735043	736564	763090	772776	793948	724428	724428	96687
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL											665945	739702	726245	786764	761647	788124	797785	818984	736270	736270	3408406
Cd	1A1a											472606	529292	518901	565418	566588	586992	594443	610729	557253	557253	25292
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL											478169	534929	524551	571074	571238	591555	600145	615422	559293	559293	41343
Hg	1A1a											472606	529292	518901	565418	566588	586992	594443	610729	557253	557253	6317
Hg	6Ca											15807	15807	15807	15807	15372	15372	15372	15372	3020	3020	90
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL											493453	550204	539865	586431	586489	606892	614359	630683	565020	565020	11240