Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MK

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A1a												12300	12300	12300	12870	12620	8000	11920	13672	14280	12385
NOx	1A2b															240	450	450	1240	1176	1176	2
NOx	2C5e												100	100	100	4920	140	140	2670
NMVOC	3A3															1450	1490	1490	1490	1151	1151	0
NMVOC	3D3															6910	6690	6690	6690	91	91	0
SOx	1A2fi												100	100	3660	3960	4040	4040	5780	203	203	258
SOx	3D3												200	200	4600
CO	1A4ai												1000	1000	27600	270	280	280	220	261	261	1097
CO	2C5e												100	100	100	9000	200	200	4850
CO	3D3												300	300	16700							1

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
TSP	1A2b				13200	630	1180	1180	3261	3087	3087	0
TSP	1A2fi					560	580	580	810	74	74	0
TSP	2C5e					18750	100	100	9908

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A1a	889349	954605	919593	942666	967304	1016398	982216	1026002	972649	1058989	1007248	1121315	990090	1008679	966811	949655	981610	897751	1030871	1028170	928415
Pb	1A2a	38869	329526	211885	524677	295399	326774	429360	496340	551758	483998	585638	274535	206017	206017	27304	40952	40952	68102	161431	198599	356185
Pb	1A2b	128553	270832	243749	231561	199143	236898	293754	305375	281125	247390	299342	264457	181236	80034	144095	158857	158857	121041	608226	73	33
Pb	1A2fi	210857	72141	65674	57989	51093	51480	49887	46847	43160	52762	74262	73128	76521	69583	96982	106507	106507	127609	395970	22656	84873
Pb	1A3bi	89093506	68602775	76903399	79683739	72319879	78564788	78046806	79470776	79326235	79651039	82324210	85064979	84520617	82384938	17134064	16928220	1467885	1585503	828	1548890	3672
Pb	1A3biv	1324708	1576292	2368321	2590917	1251888	1988699	2332084	2967087	3076660	3024893	3217292	3867826	2517581	1848067	298089	294604	25532	27568	95693	26927	36
Pb	1A4bi	341893	355740	370118	372328	346685	324029	375441	332308	309609	359104	411814	259998	263984	290692	290917	290917	290917	275281	928070	354488	348315
Pb	2C1	2435521	2361819	1229178	679911	232341	160373	392969	556441	919390	730381	1347289	1794746	2953944	2256705	1759919	3614680	3614680	2481355	3896200	3808814	5020017
Pb	2C5b		12946960	12474540	11818560	10798840	12089220	13739180	14704040	14990820	12174240	12822680	9663940	6368960	2745340							439180
Cd	1A2b	1752	3662	3296	3131	2693	3250	4030	4176	3847	3385	4096	3591	2510	1076	2028	2270	2270	2067	8170	12	17
Cd	1A2fi	3645	1464	1347	1183	1036	1049	1014	941	875	1065	1466	1502	1592	1360	2323	2376	2376	2879	5319	479	5886
Cd	2C1	66008	64010	33313	18427	6297	4346	10650	15081	24917	19795	36514	48641	80058	61161	7652	15716	15716	10788	16940	16560	21826
Cd	2C5d		183312	178530	138115	116290	196518	243172	157022	168648	143302	165140	14280	5332
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	195333	423709	381141	333741	291927	380327	438801	363954	380246	355298	395505	249698	250933	215392	146712	153679	159704	142789	173983	171251	176490
Hg	1A2a	243	18404	11834	28962	16306	18701	23701	27398	31170	27342	33083	15385	11214	11214	342	508	508	696	1509	9521	18344
Hg	1A2b	7329	15727	14155	13447	11564	13291	16481	17272	15873	13968	16901	15207	9935	4710	8289	8596	8596	3044	35858	5	7
Hg	1A2fi	4376	518	479	419	366	372	359	331	309	376	504	518	554	462	808	817	817	992	23344	163	75961
Hg	1A4bi	4480	4988	5168	4964	4540	4257	4899	4360	4611	5446	5965	3864	4088	4425	3843	3843	3843	3647	36409	4224	4209
Hg	2C1	51031	49486	25755	14246	4868	3360	8234	11659	19264	15303	28229	37605	61893	47284	38259	78580	78580	53942	84700	82800	109131
Hg	2C5d		278635	271366	209935	176761	298707	369622	238674	256344	217820	251013	21706	8105
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	238901	572072	525164	472065	416762	552450	632946	519137	536654	506978	547492	324453	298326	269953	241939	279908	284743	240081	385366	300809	393928