Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MK

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2008

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2008

PMs:

2000 – 2008

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
NOx2C5e           10010010049201401402670 
SOx1A2fi           10010036603960404040405780203
SOx3D3           2002004600     
CO1A4ai           1000100027600270280280220261
CO2C5e           10010010090002002004850 
CO3D3           30030016700     

PM (Unit = Mg)
  200020012002200320042005200620072008
TSP2C5e    187501001009908 

HM (Unit = g)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
PbNATIONALTOTAL        3020000  2089000090000      
CdNATIONALTOTAL        167000 167000222400024000