Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MD

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
NOx1A2a5053         354023514511726470500   
NMVOC1A2e79         2860376539641116195544 2214
NMVOC2A123000         1110143574400880333   
SOx1A2fi          270340213  10735 28181691
CO2C5e7110            49010000230733   

PM (Unit = Mg)
  2000200120022003200420052006200720082009
PM2.51A2fi262025  2112 226136
PM2.51A4bi840519180270131913546 18922002
PM2.54F   227115654 16582132
PM104F   540676665 17482248
TSP4F   1545199493 17482248

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb1A1a4940000         15800032100030000100085000184000191000 1200010000
Pb1A2fi          7000150008000  25430002153000 415000249000
Pb1A3bi200820000         167000022090002144000129000910009000095000   
Pb1A4ai1245000         265000235000265000406000234000245000267000 214000281000
Pb1A4bi3792000         650000524000754000714000574000626000708000 382000404000
Pb1A4bii35872000            120000181000192000959000 171000188000
Pb2A1460000         4400032000560005100088000128000213000   
Pb2C5e1000000            9060000100000010070004000   
Pb4F             28000  340000 261000336000
PbNATIONALTOTAL248550000220264000102567000711990002316100033898000278990002235700078980001120700028180003352900328400010553000228000050590004975000 35370002674000
Cd1A1a1673000         9400045000400023000200020004000 3000026000
Cd1A2a284000            3000100001100012000   
Cd1A2fi          6000100008000  3200069000 1700010000
Cd1A4ai114000         220002200016000030001800050006000 50007000
Cd1A4bii1000            2000370003000  20002000
Cd2C5e40000            350004000400003000   
CdNATIONALTOTAL2419000349300016930001415000819000594000659000364000328000148000173000114000226000122000114000145000158000 174000126000
Hg1A2a297000         10002000100010000120001300014000   
Hg1A2fi          700090001000  1100011000 172000103000
Hg1A4bi465000         800006300091000900007200075000104000 1100012000
Hg2A1230000         2200016000280002600044000640001000   
HgNATIONALTOTAL33710003810000329000018490001287000894000954000571000406000180000259000226000392000340000323000244000217000 306000239000

POP (Unit = mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
HCBNATIONALTOTAL1044000         6608001020900748800130000255000101280008631000 151000146000