Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MD

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2008
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2008
PMs:	2000 – 2008

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
NOx	1A2a	5053										35	402	35	1451	1726	470	500
NMVOC	1A2e	79										2860	3765	3964	11	16	195	544		22
NMVOC	2A1	23000										11	10	14	357	4400	880	333
NMVOC	4F	1340													89	1063	3470	3461		1899
SOx	1A2fi											270	340	213			1073	5		2818
NH3	4F	1273														1010	1010	58		723
CO	2C5e	7110													490	10000	2307	33

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
PM2.5	1A2fi	26	20	25			21	12		226
PM2.5	1A4bi	840	519	1	802	701	3191	3546		1892
PM2.5	4F				2	2711	56	54		1658
PM10	4F				5	4067	66	65		1748
TSP	4F				15	4519	94	93		1748

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Pb	1A1a	4940000										158000	321000	30000	1000	85000	184000	191000		12000
Pb	1A2fi											7000	15000	8000			2543000	2153000		415000
Pb	1A3bi	200820000										1670000	2209000	2144000	129000	91000	90000	95000
Pb	1A4ai	1245000										265000	235000	265000	406000	234000	245000	267000		214000
Pb	1A4bi	3792000										650000	524000	754000	714000	574000	626000	708000		382000
Pb	1A4bii	35872000													120000	181000	192000	959000		171000
Pb	2A1	460000										44000	32000	56000	51000	88000	128000	213000
Pb	2C5e	1000000													9060000	1000000	1007000	4000
Pb	4F														28000			340000		261000
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	248550000	220264000	102567000	71199000	23161000	33898000	27899000	22357000	7898000	11207000	2818000	3352900	3284000	10553000	2280000	5059000	4975000		3537000
Cd	1A1a	1673000										94000	45000	4000	23000	2000	2000	4000		30000
Cd	1A2a	284000													3000	10000	11000	12000
Cd	1A4ai	114000										22000	22000	160000	3000	18000	5000	6000		5000
Cd	1A4bii	1000													2000	37000	3000			2000
Cd	2C5e	40000													35000	4000	40000	3000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2419000	3493000	1693000	1415000	819000	594000	659000	364000	328000	148000	173000	114000	226000	122000	114000	145000	158000		174000
Hg	1A2a	297000										1000	2000	1000	10000	12000	13000	14000
Hg	1A2fi											7000	9000	1000			11000	11000		172000
Hg	1A4ai	187000										38000	36000	210000	50000	29000	32000	32000		13000
Hg	1A4bi	465000										80000	63000	91000	90000	72000	75000	104000		11000
Hg	2A1	230000										22000	16000	28000	26000	44000	64000	1000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3371000	3810000	3290000	1849000	1287000	894000	954000	571000	406000	180000	259000	226000	392000	340000	323000	244000	217000		306000

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1044000										660800	1020900	748800	130000	255000	10128000	8631000		151000