Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MC

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	452	515	572	543	539	504	492	472	442	428	411	409	387	371	355	339	307	339	323	319	309
NMVOC	1A3dii												36	31	34	5	5	5	5	5	6	5
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	690	790	912	817	815	753	693	635	584	563	513	475	470	436	416	421	385	402	375	324	265
SOx	1A3bi												3	3	3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
SOx	1A3di(i)															3	0	0	1	1	0	0
SOx	1A3dii												3	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NH3	1A1a												1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	6	5	4	4
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	2834	3231	3677	3243	3195	2883	2622	2372	2103	2007	1808	1690	1622	1504	1407	1306	1287	1285	1185	1043	861

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
TSP	1A3bi		1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A3bii		1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A3biii		2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	3836610	3927473	4060911	3690854	2065357	767059	664066	543115	486375	413138	59181	62763	56055	46407	41326	41475	30086	41084	39488	36344	35114