Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MC

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2008
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2008
PMs:	2000 – 2008

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	452	515	572	543	539	504	492	472	442	428	411	409	387	371	355	339	307	339	325
NMVOC	1A3dii												36	31	34	5	5	5	5	5
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	690	790	912	817	815	753	693	635	583	563	513	475	470	436	416	421	385	402	375
SOx	1A3bi												3	3	3	3	1	1	1	1
SOx	1A3di(i)															3	0	0	1	1
SOx	1A3dii												3	3	3	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	74	84	87	92	83	80	74	73	74	71	62	60	61	65	63	56	49	40	25
NH3	1A1a												1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	6	5
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	2834	3231	3677	3243	3195	2883	2622	2372	2103	2007	1808	1690	1622	1504	1407	1306	1287	1285	1185

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
TSP	1A3bi		1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A3bii		1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A3biii		2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	3864187	3962563	4099709	3724897	2098449	780101	673276	563981	486375	427402	59181	62763	56055	46407	41326	41475	30086	41084	39488