Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LV

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NOx	1A3bi	11027	10022	10184	10144	9626	8995	8456	7995	7830	7520	7982	8764	8135	7775	7321	6110	5960	5574	4605	3311
NMVOC	1A3bi	15762	14397	14452	14250	13512	12221	11532	10356	9677	9035	9177	9865	8910	8130	7197	5652	5058	3975	2753	1939
NMVOC	1A3biii	4206	3870	3132	2867	2610	2672	2616	2374	1995	1876	1884	1958	1751	1565	1313	1235	1140	1036	853	538
NMVOC	1A4bi	21981	26801	25001	27125	27101	28851	30153	28488	28300	27292	26413	28929	28290	29900	30110	30338	29315	28597	28366	31597
NMVOC	1A4cii	27676	2244	2244	2244	2244	1496	1496	1496	748	748	748	187	289	747	747	747	747	747
NMVOC	2A6	499	161	27	754	1608	1497	2750	2880	2887	4286	6100	7138	8041	9010	52588	16776	16080	21492	22128	12074
NMVOC	3B1	2268	2259	2246	2197	2159	2124	2098	2077	2056	2038	2019	2010	1994	9	30	11	11	129	78	55
NMVOC	3D2	4802	4784	4756	4653	4572	4499	4443	4398	4355	4316	4276	4256	763	1335	2110	2613	4598	7221	5486	1892
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	101593	75760	70954	71078	70016	67344	69927	66703	64372	63969	64738	68940	64911	64716	109772	73422	74932	83525	73954	60628
NMVOC	UNFCCCTOTAL	101542	75691	70935	71059	69998	67326	69904	66680	64351	63948	64719	68921	64892	64688	109765	73414	74923	83514	73941	60613
SOx	1A3biii	206	197	165	163	160	164	160	170	170	128	159	195	203	208	212	33	37	41	38	5
SOx	1A3di(i)	20393	6936	9280	10175	12024	7074	4314	2934	162	10	10	390	492	469	562	745	789	520	678	897
SOx	2A1	3409	3150	1418	157	765	896	1010	1029	998	1341	853	1036	1127	1230	1326	1354	1686	1725	1706	1739
NH3	6B	1308	1303	1295	1267	1245	1225	1210	1198	1186	1175	993	1221	1160	1113	1259	1135	1137	1105	1568	1199
CO	11B	403	108	13133	890	41	835	1447	699	329	2411	2055	422	3691	1012	757	187	5258	423	568	1009
CO	1A3bi	160259	146159	143366	140882	128970	109615	103171	85568	77736	67952	65915	70027	61231	55289	48076	37913	33878	27521	19782	14547
CO	1A3di(i)	20393	2739	17	17	5088	2854	1797	1268	179	106	85	3031	3400	3151	3436	4488	3431	3103	3828	5073
CO	1A4cii	53724	4356	4356	4356	4356	2904	2904	2904	1452	1452	1452	363	561	1451	1451	1451	1451	1451

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	30791	34025	34269	36435	75212	43967	42886	47243	47064	40676

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Pb	1A2fi	258865	169070	149537	246537	262125	187831	185728	173821	192471	179544	107440	113368	103313	112806	142664	246014	338736	402083	412063	394536
Pb	1A3bi	54254945	49147399	49601720	48762841	45948333	41944951	39220772	35743279	33562201	3403255	3593211	3981186	4005041	4083168	4209363	1711444	1924216	2136464	1961250	1640384
Pb	1A3bii	7750117	7856000	6519185	6052603	5820099	3524786	3595358	2720267	2094408	300867	212219	196720	171642	152129	137749	58375	61051	62317	59624	51422
Pb	1A3biii	20744163	18826123	15143184	13369963	11953953	12174127	12177395	10349127	8407856	858069	734623	631837	552601	506845	428546	259274	266798	279230	249468	163147
Pb	1A4ai	2404742	1977808	1834574	1380004	820269	651894	697371	602511	497517	467673	364081	376494	363693	359727	374022	332834	346076	353145	269882	238759
Pb	1A4bi	1690887	2033693	1615513	1758762	1672818	1455954	1526050	1424514	1317325	1258911	1201945	1401364	1321114	1382962	1392219	1419387	1360916	1329915	1319973	1459463
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	316999	275385	223786	214739	207088	186639	197079	212789	213160	206513	190688	204747	204714	214283	220761	220275	222555	223311	211527	201378

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
HCB	1A4bi	124030	152690	148673	161499	163535	181147	189312	179439	180458	174771	169686	183943	180997	191588	192926	193989	187674	183012	181512	202506