Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LU

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A2fi	3475	3386	3771	3530	3906	3528	3548	3531	3326	3679	3412	4042	3039	2313	2709	2838	3170	3293	3039	3160	3261
NMVOC	1A2b	3	3	3	3	4	4	7	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	5	3	3	3	2	2	845
NMVOC	1A2c	17	21	17	18	18	12	12	9	6	6	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	5	4	340
NMVOC	3B1	865	865	865	865	855	913	993	997	963	978	899	1011	1038	1050	1234	1201	1134	1212	1140	1058	847
NMVOC	3C	766	766	766	766	757	809	778	684	573	497	382	480	542	595	676	634	599	641	602	559	447
NMVOC	3D1	506	506	506	506	500	534	559	541	504	494	438	484	489	486	541	496	468	501	471	437	350
NMVOC	3D2	820	820	820	820	810	866	957	975	956	984	916	1006	1009	997	1176	1148	1084	1159	1090	1011	810
NMVOC	3D3	403	403	403	403	398	426	461	460	442	446	407	440	433	419	484	462	437	467	439	407	326
SOx	1A1a	88	85	80	84	70	59	54	35	4	4	9	8	12	44	66	65	75	73	81	86	87
NH3	1A3bi	519	815	1113	1332	1583	1521	1507	1458	1358	1272	1198	1055	919	828	718	575	449	376	316	258	274
NH3	4D1a	477	496	534	489	465	457	458	454	446	459	451	387	402	331	415	359	354	337	338	359	360
CO	1A2fi	30288	28868	29534	24608	28330	20871	17212	13442	9534	5912	2057	3384	3402	3933	5081	5844	6459	7400	3768	1346	1482
CO	1A3bi	101239	113848	123475	123920	126054	112859	105905	98864	89701	82519	76879	67673	59911	55195	49909	41943	34095	29804	26218	22250	23648