Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LT

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NMVOC	3D3													4866	4824	4796	4765	4739	2020	2010	2010	0
SOx	1A3biii													231	227	1375	1649	1874	2476	47	9	12
SOx	1B2aiv													3715	2755	3882	17	42	2663	1731	5746	7028

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A1a													547000	337000	223802	188471	229078	227846	121143	391611	449089
Pb	1A2fi													682000		121307	152926	170284	20182	54314	15434	12762
Pb	1A2fii																		21068	14959	105380	81804
Pb	1A3bi													5944000	5863000	4274634	4185354	4391445	5509223	2760489	2219279	1332634
Pb	1A3bii													1497000	1480000	159747	179483	256075	114577	19091	18040	33300
Pb	1A3biii													3361000	3301000						59240	95434
Pb	1A4cii													502000	499000	20776	15730	17511	18402	15434	12169	12762
Cd	1A1a													430000	273000	169154	141909	173285	170753	183724	290870	342112
Cd	1A2fi													93000		24461	38554	27259	248	269	144	144
Cd	1A2fii																		2962	2846	41106	9935
Cd	1A3bvi													62000	61000	146956	2691	2842	2139	1931	1624	1674
Cd	1A4bi													187000	182000	236	259	357	409	393	271	501
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3800000	2800000	2500000	2300000	2100000	2100000	2200000	2200000	2590000	2008000	1351000		1012000	916000	524255	371047	367056	404892	313809	448793	427328
Hg	1A1a													35000	42000	175300	148257	179287	175785	119807	435650	228025
Hg	1A4bi													192000	188000	5165	5688	7572	8565	8232	5872	10425
Hg	FUTOTAL																			271148	622959	386919
Hg	GRIDTOTAL															416793	412710	418125	428492	271148	622959	386919
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	18000	16000	11000	14000	13000	153000	159000	232000	245000	253000	252000		314000	352000	416793	412710	418125	428492	271148	622959	386919
Hg	UNFCCCTOTAL																		428492	271148	587309	386919