Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LT

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
SOx1B2aiv            3715275538821742266317315746

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb1A1a            547000337000223802188471229078227846121143391611
Pb1A2fi            682000 121307152926170284201825431415434
Pb1A3bii            14970001480000159747179483256075114577150720128039
Pb1A3biii            33610003301000    96331278679
Pb1A3bvi               560693592093445130741219645627
Pb1A4cii            502000499000207761573017511184021543412169
Cd1A1a            430000273000169154141909173285170753183724290870
Cd1A2fi            93000 244613855427259248269144
Cd1A2fii                 2962284641106
Cd1A3bvi            620006100014695626912842213935573097
Cd1A4bi            187000182000236259357409393271
CdNATIONALTOTAL38000002800000250000023000002100000210000022000002200000259000020080001351000 1012000916000524255371047367056404892459824453991
Hg1A1a            35000420001753001482571792871757851198071365220
Hg1A2fii                 8126687053607
Hg1A4bi            192000188000516556887572856582325872
HgGRIDTOTAL              4167934127104181254284922711481552529
HgNATIONALTOTAL1800016000110001400013000153000159000232000245000253000252000 3140003520004167934127104181254284922711481552529
HgUNFCCCTOTAL                 4284922711481552529