Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LT

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2008
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2008
PMs:	2000 – 2008

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
SOx	1B2aiv													3715	2755	3882	17	42	2663	1731

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Pb	1A2fi													682000		121307	152926	170284	20182	54314
Pb	1A3bii													1497000	1480000	159747	179483	256075	114577	150720
Pb	1A3biii													3361000	3301000					96331
Pb	1A3bvi																560693	592093	445130	741219
Pb	1A4cii													502000	499000	20776	15730	17511	18402	15434
Cd	1A2fi													93000		24461	38554	27259	248	269
Cd	1A3bvi													62000	61000	146956	2691	2842	2139	3557
Cd	1A4bi													187000	182000	236	259	357	409	393
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3800000	2800000	2500000	2300000	2100000	2100000	2200000	2200000	2590000	2008000	1351000		1012000	916000	524255	371047	367056	404892	459824
Hg	1A1a													35000	42000	175300	148257	179287	175785	119807
Hg	1A4bi													192000	188000	5165	5688	7572	8565	8232
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	18000	16000	11000	14000	13000	153000	159000	232000	245000	253000	252000		314000	352000	416793	412710	418125	428492	271148