Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LI

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A3bi	162	147	130	119	111	103	97	91	86	81	75	70	65	62	58	54	51	48	45	42	68
NOx	1A3bii	35	33	31	29	27	26	24	23	22	21	20	19	18	18	17	16	16	15	14	13	18
NOx	1A3biii	257	261	264	265	262	259	256	254	253	252	250	248	244	238	230	225	218	210	202	192	173
NMVOC	1A3bi	127	111	92	78	68	58	49	42	35	30	25	22	18	16	14	13	11	10	9	8	10
NMVOC	1A3biii	28	28	29	28	28	27	27	26	25	24	22	20	19	17	16	16	15	14	14	13	6
NMVOC	3A3	131	132	134	136	138	139	140	141	144	146	148	151	152	154	156	157	158	159	160	162	158
NMVOC	3B1	25	25	25	26	26	26	26	27	27	28	28	28	29	29	29	30	30	30	30	31	30
NMVOC	3D3	89	90	91	92	93	94	95	96	98	99	100	102	103	105	106	106	107	108	109	110	107
SOx	1A3bi	13	13	12	11	7	6	6	6	7	7	4	4	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3bii	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3biii	16	15	14	12	5	4	5	4	5	5	3	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A4ai	25	21	21	23	21	21	19	22	23	21	19	18	20	21	21	20	21	13	17	19	16
SOx	1A4bi	9	8	8	8	8	7	7	8	8	7	7	6	7	8	7	7	8	5	6	7	6
SOx	1A4cii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
NH3	1A3bi	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	9
NH3	4B1a	82	82	79	75	77	77	77	76	76	76	72	78	77	78	78	81	85	87	86	85	69
NH3	4B8	25	29	24	24	21	20	18	20	17	19	16	19	15	15	6	13	13	13	13	14	11
CO	1A3bii	170	152	136	122	111	101	91	83	76	72	68	64	58	56	54	51	48	46	43	40	52
CO	1A3biii	74	75	75	75	73	72	71	69	67	65	62	59	57	55	53	52	50	48	46	44	36

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
PM2.5	1A3bi	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	2
PM2.5	1A3bii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	1A4bi	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4
PM10	1A3bi	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	3
PM10	1A3bii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A4bi	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4
PM10	2A6	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2
TSP	1A3bi	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	3
TSP	1A3bii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A4bi	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4
TSP	2A6	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	1A4ai	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	6Cb	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	7	7	7	7	7